Does Ukraine Have Nuclear Weapons?

It’s hard to believe, but back in 1991 --  when Ukraine seceded from the Soviet Union, helping relegate it to the dust bin of history – Ukraine was the third-largest nuclear power in the world. Its armory included 1900 strategic warheads.  But for many second-guessable reasons, Ukraine surrendered its nuclear arsenal to Russia in exchange for security assurances.

These guarantees were codified in the 1994 Budapest Agreement under which Russia, the U.S., and the UK pledged to “respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine.” Unfortunately, Leges Sine Moribus Vanae (words without morals are useless), as Horace, the Roman poet, put it over two millennia ago. When Putin invaded Crimea in 2014, he trashed the Budapest Agreement, declaring the agreement null and void because it was “made with the legitimate government of Ukraine, not pretenders.”

Putin certainly has a way with words. He also has a way with genocide, which he’s committing on a daily basis. In so doing, Putin has gone beyond political, let alone moral salvation. This is Hitler in 1945, in Berlin, in his bunker, high on the world’s worst drug – ego, ordering his suddenly “weak”, “unworthy”, “traitorous” countrymen and countrywomen and countrychildren to fight to their deaths.

Putin’s in a mental bunker, conscripting more and more young, middle aged, and old comrades to fight and die for his “special military operation.” The aim? It’s no longer retaking the “birthright” of Russia, but making it uninhabitable. As for standing up to NATO? Putin’s Russia can’t stand up to Ukraine, which is fighting largely with captured Russian weapons. And NATO? it’s expanding before his eyes. Together, the joining members, Finland and Sweden, have far more active soldiers and reservists than Putin has in Ukraine. Their air forces have more planes than Ukraine.

Then there’s the supposed energy trump card? Europe has gone or is going from 45 percent dependence on Russian energy to less than 10 percent. And the price of oil is where it was when Putin invaded. The same’s true of the price of wheat. The reality will take time to seep into Putin’s swollen head. But the world doesn’t need Russia’s oil or gas or grains or really anything from his small (3.4 percent of world GDP before the invasion) and declining economy.

Putin is now running out of hard currency, stolen land, and domestic political support. His closest “allies” are publicly calling for the Defense Minister’s head. How would they respond to a repeat of 1917, when the Russian army completely collapsed?

Putin seems ready to resort to his final solution – nuclear weapons. His gamble is that Hiroshima-sized nuclear bombs fired against Ukrainian troops will stop them in their tracks, with NATO looking the other way. This, President Biden is saying, in plain English at public fund-raising events, won’t happen. What will happen is WWIII with Russia’s conventional army, air force, and navy instantly attacked and quickly destroyed. If Putin responds with a nuclear attack on a NATO country, he will not live to see what happens nor will his henchmen.

But what if NATO blinks? This is surely Putin’s calculus. Then Ukraine will surely use its nuclear weapons. They are the 38 nuclear power plants located primarily in Western Russia. A couple are very close to Moscow and St. Petersburg. The largest 10 plants have 35 reactors. The Kalinin plant, with its four reactors, is 200 km from Moscow. The Leningrad nuclear plant is 103 km from St. Petersburg. The Rostow plant, with three reactors, has 15 cities within 99 km. Blowing these plants up or wiping out their cooling systems can spread ration for kilometers. But starting a fire of spent fuel rods may represent the greatest danger. Fukushima’s disaster almost involved a fuel rod fire that would have left Toyko uninhabitable.

You get the picture. This is target-rich environment.

Blowing them up, with special forces (and big things, like the major bridge linking Russia to Crimea, are mysteriously blowing up every day) or bombers it will demand and receive from NATO, can potentially make both cities uninhabitable – for centuries.

This is the madness to which one madman is leading the world. Is there a Putin offramp – the one that President Biden is publicly seeking?

Here’s one such ramp.

1.     Putin agrees to surrender all occupied territory except Crimea, repatriate, under UN supervision, Crimeans seeking resettlement in Ukraine, and return all kidnapped Ukrainian civilians as well as captured Ukrainian soldiers to Ukraine.

2.     Ukraine recognizes Crimea as Russian territory, and returns captured Russian            soldiers.

3.     NATO agrees to admit Ukraine, lift all sanctions on Russia, and sign an agreement with Russia that pledges to “respect the independence, sovereignty, and the existing borders of Russia, including Crimea.”

China is the obvious broker of this deal. As the only remaining major Russian trading partner, it has plenty of leverage. It will, soon enough, become king of the economic block. It has decades, if not centuries, to peacefully absorb Taiwan. What it needs is ongoing trade with the West, not Armageddon that leaves it King of the Ashes.

As for Herr Putin, maybe a nice dacha in a remote corner of China would suit him fine.

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