Europe and China vs the U.S. and Russia?

Are We About to Witness a Global Realignment?

?

Photo by Sivani Bandaru on Unsplash

President Trump is either:

A) a Transcendental, America-First Leader or

B) a Russian Agent.

Take your pick.

The Case for A

In less than one month, Trump has galvanized Europe to organize its own defense. The U.S. can’t go it alone, militarily, against Russia, let alone Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea combined. It needs the world’s second or third largest economy — the European Union plus UK — to act as if its sovereignty is at stake, which it surely is.

In less than one month, Trump has reinforced Israel’s reshaping of the Middle East and made clear to Iran that the Great Satan — the United States, which Iran has been calling us for 46 years, will live up to its name if Iran continues to foment terrorism in the region or refuses to end its nuclear ambitions.

In less than one month, Trump has made clear to would be illegal immigrants, that the U.S. is no safe haven, even temporarily.

In less than one month, Trump has imposed or begun to impose major tariffs with the intent of restoring manufacturing jobs. (This is a tall order. Only 7 percent of our workforce is now in manufacturing, down from 30 percent in 1950.)

In less than one month, Trump has made meritocracy, not equality the nation’s economic priority. In the process, he’s made DEI a dangerous word for any company or institution to utter.

In less than one month, Trump has eliminated or enfeebled the top echelon of the federal bureaucracy, delivering on his promise to eviscerate the “deep state.”

In less than one month, Trump has gotten Putin to begin discussing a peace deal in Ukraine.

In less than one month, Trump has articulated a vision for Gaza that doesn’t include Hamas nor, apparently, most of Gaza’s 2 million residents.

In less than one month, Trump has legitimized land grabs, be it retaking the Panama Canal, swallowing Canada, occupying Greenland, occupying Gaza, and allowing Putin to keep roughly one fifth of Ukraine.

The Case for B

In less than one month, Trump has appointed a host of supremely unqualified yes men/women to key cabinet positions.

In less than one month, Trump has critically undermined the rule of law — suggesting he’s above the courts, ignoring court orders, pardoning Jan 6th convicts who attacked police, producing a Saturday night massacre of DOJ lawyers who object to his bribing NY Mayor, Eric Adams, and threatening FBI agents who investigated January 6th.

In less than one month, Trump has taken a blow torch to American universities whose grants have been frozen or dramatically reduced. Even Alabama’s Senator Britt warned that cutting grant overhead will “hinder lifesaving, groundbreaking research at high-achieving institutions like those in Alabama.” (Trump says Harvard and other universities should use their endowments to replace government support. He might suggest that Musk use his wealth to cover his $20 billion in federal contracts.)

In less than one month, Trump’s VP has openly embraced European fascists and effectively declared, all on his lonesome, the end of NATO.

In less than one month, Trump has legitimatized global conquest, suggesting that our manifest destiny justifies our ownership of the Panama Canal, Canada, Greenland, and Gaza.

In less than one month, Trump has laid the grounds for a trade war featuring the U.S. against the rest of the world.

In less than one month, Trump has conditioned future aid to Ukraine on their granting the U.S. half ownership of their critical minerals and rare-earth metals.

In less than one month, Trump has laid the ground work for a decent-sized recession. Deporting roughly 4 percent of the workforce is no small matter.

Trump Derangement Syndrome?

Is case B TDS?

I certainly hope so. But when my co-author from Germany tells me, this morning, that we’ll remain friends, but that Germany and the rest of Europe now views the U.S. as an adversary, not an ally, I wonder.

I certainly hope so, but when I went to speak at West Point two weeks back and spoke to an enraged member of the Danish military who also used the word “adversary” wrt the U.S., I wonder.

I certainly hope so, but when my next-door neighbor told me she is considering selling her house because her NIH grant on Alzheimers remains frozen and may be permanently slashed, I wonder.

I certainly hope so, but when my friend tells me that half of his contractor’s workers are hiding at home for fear of being snatch by ICE, I wonder.

I certainly hope so, but when Martin Wolf, the Financial Times chief economics correspondent, drawls parallels between Hitler in 1933 and Trump in 2025, I wonder.

I certainly hope so, but when our “Secretary of Defense” declares “that stark strategic realities prevent the United States of America from being primarily focused on the security of Europe” and that Europeans, not Americans, will need to guarantee Ukrainian security in any peace deal, I wonder.

Global Realignment?

I also wonder if Trump’s practice of speaking loudly and wielding an unknown-sized stick will turn the world against us before he has time to backtrack. China is now in a perfect position to say to Europe,

Sign a free trade agreement with us. We’ll also provide you the military equipment you seek to protect Ukraine. We can even replace the U.S. in NATO.

In short, China and Europe could quickly effect a global realignment that leaves the U.S. in the cold. Take Chile. Its trade with China is four times that of its trade with the U.S. If it comes down to China’s saying, “Trade with us or trade with the U.S., but not both.” my guess is that Chile will trade with China.

If Trump is truly or effectively a Russian agent, destroying U.S. institutions, undermining U.S. international trade, taking steps that may produce a substantial inflation plus a recession — they all fit the bill. So would invading Gaza or Greenland or Canada or Panama canal. Any such military incursions would surely lead to European sanctions on Trump and his likely indictment for war crimes.

Trump Has Made His Point. He Must Now Start to Lead, Not Destroy

The U.S. needs strong, intelligent leadership. Trump has gotten everyone’s attention. He now has to decide whether he wants to play at, or at least be perceived as, Putin’s puppet, whether he values democracy or is seeking adoration by cowed minions, whether he cares about the country’s future more than his own, and whether he understands that his words as well as his actions have consequences.

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