The 1978 Jonestown Massacre featured hundreds of Americans who eagerly drank a mixture of koolaid and cyanide. They were partaking in a religious ceremony — “revolutionary suicide” — under the direction of cult leader, Reverend Jim Jones.
Many of the 900 congregants, including children, weren’t thirsty, but were forced to drink anyway. Hence, not everyone viewed suicide as salvation. Yet, all the adults had voluntarily moved to remote Guyana to build Jone’s socialist nirvana. As Simon and Garfunkel put it, “People hear what they want to hear and disregard the rest.”
History is largely driven by autocrats and their followers who hear and then believe irrational things. They “drink their own kool aid” — listen to their own muse, no matter how nuts. Others let others do their thinking.
Examples:
Putin believing Ukrainians would welcome his invasion
Hamas thinking it could defeat Israel
Hezbollah thinking it could destroy Israel
Iran thinking it can destroy both Israel and the U.S.
Joe Biden thinking he was physically fit to run for another term
Kamala Harris thinking party slogans would secure independents
President-elect Trump thinking tariffs will be paid by foreigners
Both parties thinking fiscal profligacy is sustainable
Both parties thinking they can restore manufacturing
China thinking it can own the South China Sea
Khrushchev claiming he would bury us
Hitler sure he could beat the British Empire plus the Soviet Union plus the U.S.
Napoleon convinced he could defeat Russia
The South sure it could stop the North
Ancient Israel thinking it could take on the Roman empire.
Add to the list
Magical Thinking Matters
Magical thinking can change the world irrevocably. But such changes are not inevitable. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was not pre-ordained by “NATO’s encircling Russia.” A less paranoid Putin could have spent the past quarter century joining, not fearing the EU and NATO. Instead, his posture, positions, demeanor, and actions threatened his neighbors thereby inducing Russia’s defensive encirclement, including, of late, Finland and Sweden.
Palestinians and their supporters could have followed Gandhi and petitioned for a state on a non-violent basis. They’d likely have gained one decades ago. They still can give peace a chance, but not by declaring “from the river to the sea.”
Iran could have taken Vietnam’s approach and formed close commercial ties with the U.S. after expelling its nemesis — the U.S. Instead, it proclaimed, “Death to America,” convinced that its god was not just great, but the greatest of the world’s 18,000 current and historic gods.
President Trump could rescind his pledge to tax Mexican and Canadian imports at 25 percent for things their governments can’t control — illegals crossing the 1,954 mile U.S.-Mexico border, drug cartels operating in Mexico, and illegals crossing the 5,525 mile U.S.-Canada border. But he now needs to be true to his attention-seeking tweets, especially those this definitive:
On January 20th, as one of my many first Executive Orders, I will sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25% Tariff on ALL products coming into the United States, and its ridiculous Open Borders.
Irrational History Lessons
Irrational decisions generally blow up in the decider’s face. In less than three years, Putin has killed roughly 700,000 Russians and injured well over 1 million. He’s also lost over 9,000 tanks, 28 warships, 2.5 thousand cruise millions, 18,000 drones, and close to 700 aircraft. Of course, Putin might still take Ukraine with the unthinkable — Trump’s help.
Yet, Putin’s victory, if it occurs, will be pyrrhic — a permanently damaged and sanctioned Russian economy, his own lifetime pariah status, and control of a demolished country whose most productive citizens have fled. Going further and attacking a NATO nation will pit Russia against the world’s largest economy, which is neither the U.S. nor China, but Europe.
Or consider Trump’s 25 percent tariff on all Canadian imports. We currently import 8.5 million barrels of oil a day, the lion’s share from Canada. Trump’s announcement hardly changed the forward U.S.-Canada exchange rate. This suggests our Canadian oil imports will simply cost America 25 percent more for oil. If Canada adds a 25 percent export tax on oil sold to the U.S., the combined impact could spell sky high gas prices.
Retaliation is already on the table. Trump’s 37-word tweet instantly transformed our largest trading partners into major trading adversaries. Ontario Premier Doug Ford said, “It’s like a family member stabbing you right in the heart.” Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum warned about severe consequences. "To one tariff will follow another in response and so on, until we put our common businesses at risk."
Crazy Is the Rule, Not the Exception
Only about one in eight countries are real democracies. Most of the world is run by explicit or implicit dictators, few benevolent. Many are mentally ill. Almost none have advanced degrees. And becoming top dog in non democracies almost always means using violence to obtain and retain power. No surprise then that the world is largely being run by violent people and that most countries are currently engaged in armed conflict.
Dictators appoint yes-people to retain power. They appoint crazier people than themselves to appear reasonable. Or their appointees out-crazy each other to establish their bonafides. With a few exceptional exceptions, including the Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, and Director of the National Economic Crisis, Kevin Hassett, Trump’s appointments range between the abysmal, the misogynist, and the potentially treasonous.
The Unknown Unknowns, Including a Far Better Trump
No one, not even Trump, knows what damage he and his appointees can and will do. Most signs look ominous. But there is nothing ominous about pledging to end the Ukrainian war, or end fighting in the Middle East, or stop illegal immigration, or make America great again again, or seek reconciliation with Iran, or eliminate excessive regulation, or stop fentanyl and other drugs entering our country, or the other positive things Trump squeezes into his diatribes.
Apart from trying to overthrow our democracy, eliminate abortion rights, divide our nation, damage relations with China, and coddle Putin, Trump’s first administration did significant good — no recession, no inflation, slow, but steady growth, an, on balance, valuable tax reform, and pushing our NATO allies, with some success, to increase their defense spending.
Real progress requires real work — not shooting off tweets at 3 AM, not playing golf, and not making enemies lists. No one, let alone Musk and Ramaswamy, can make things better by throwing out the baby with the bathwater.
Take Social Security. It has 22,000 pages worth of regulations, also called rules. Each is intimately connected to the others. Hence, throwing out, at random, say 2000 rules overnight, will leave its roughly 70,000 staff with absolutely no idea how to pay beneficiaries. Some bureaucracies can only be fixed by shutting them down at the margin — paying off everything that is owed and finishing all the work that is committed — while setting up a new system that’s simple, modern, and efficient. Social Security, the tax system, healthcare, the welfare system, and banking — all can be fixed this way. President Trump might well read You’re Hired, before starting with “You’re Fired.”
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William, Social Security is essential. But it needs to be fixed fundamentally. Pls read my book and let me know what you think of the plan. best, Larry
Ahmet, We are on the same basic page. And, yes, there are far too many Jewish extremists. The civilian casualties in Gaza are terrible. I'm hoping a new government will take over shortly in Israel and that a two-state solution can be achieved quickly. But it will require demilitarization by the Palestinians and, likely, removal of settlements from the West Bank. best, Larry