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Mr. President,
You are starting to make Neville Chamberlain look good. You’ve now proclaimed “Peace Is At Hand with Iran” 38 times since the supposed ceasefire was announced on April 8th. That’s a “Peace Is at Hand”s every other day for the past 63 days. During this period, Iran or its proxies, Hezbollah and the Houthis, have attacked our nation or our allies — the Gulf States and Israel — on a virtually continuous basis.
Your 3 AM tweets aside, war, not peace, is at hand.
As I write, we are bombing Iran and they are targeting our fleet and allies with missiles and drones. Yesterday, the Iranians shot down a $60 million Apache helicopter, almost killing its two pilots. Three days ago it launched 30 ballistic missiles against Israel. And, during your imagined past 63-day-old “cease fire,” Iran has attacked the US, Israel, or the Gulf States on a virtually continuous basis.
Mr. President, this is not reality TV where events are scripted. The regime hasn’t changed. It comprises the same folks who have been chanting “Death to America” for 47 years, the same folks who murdered tens of thousands of peaceful protestors in January, and the same folks who are blockading the Strait of Hormuz.
What, Mr. President, don’t you get?
This is not a regime we can trust any more than we can trust your friends Vladimir and Kim, with his now 60 and rapidly growing number of nukes. This is a regime full of fanatics who have spent decades trying to produce a nuclear bomb so they can blow up, hmm, let’s guess, Washington, DC. This is a regime that sent agents here to kill you, not to take you to McDonalds. This is a regime that understands just one thing — force.
Iran is to the Middle East what Nazi Germany was to Europe. No one could negotiate with Hitler. His word was worthless. Mr. President, you are effectively negotiating with Hitler in 1938 over Sudetenland (look it up) and pretending it’s a real estate transaction. This is why you’ve sent seasoned real estate brokers, your bro, Witkoff, and your son-in-law, Kushner, to cut a deal that everyone but you realizes will be worth less than the paper on which it’s signed the minute it’s signed.
Mr. President, we have the most powerful military in the world. Yet, you seem afraid to use it as needed. Unfortunately, you have no choice. If the Iranians were ready to make a real deal, they would have done so many moons ago. And thinking that they just need more time — tomorrow, next week, a month, maybe September, … ? Sorry, Mr. President. That’s nuts. The Iranians are looking at their most likely worse-case long-run scenario. They don’t think it’s so bad. Otherwise, they’d be playing nice yesterday.
Mr. President, You’re not a nice guy. You got elected because you’re not a nice guy. People counted on your being not a nice guy if the country needed protection. Yet, you now seem to be falling in love with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). They fire 30 missiles at Israel, you call it a “love tap.” They take down an Apache helicopter and you respond with a “proportional attack.”
Your love affairs with Vladimir and Kim are bad enough. They have done enormous damage to our nation’s security, including the likelihood that China will attack Taiwan. Now you’re taking the IRGC’s side over Israel’s and threatening to stab our staunchest ally in the back as you’ve largely done to Ukraine, Canada, Denmark, and NATO.
Frankly, Mr. “Commander in Chief,” if this is your best impersonation of an American president, maybe you should step aside and focus on your top priority — golf. If not, figure this one out. It’s not hard. The Iranians, not the Israelis, are our enemy. You, not they, have the military cards. Play them. Give this regime a price list. No deal today, X goes bye bye. No deal tomorrow, Y goes bye bye. No deal the day after, so long Z, etc. — with each day’s losses larger than the day before’s.
Continue in this manner until you have Iran’s unconditional surrender — what Grant and FDR demanded and you invoked on March 6, but have, it seems, since recanted. No, it won’t be pretty. Yes, we and our allies will suffer casualties and innocent civilians will die. Yes, Iranian energy infrastructure will likely be destroyed. Yes, the Gulf States may like lose much of their energy infrastructure as well. (But virtually all their wealth lies underground and will, therefore, be safe.) Yes, a gallon of unleaded will likely reach $8. Yes, it will feel like WWII at home and yes, Republicans may lose one or both houses of Congress. But, Mr. President, you aren’t playing for ownership of a casino. You’re playing for keeps.
Mr. President, unless this regime is history, our country, allies, and you personally will be history — bad history. It’s time to call a joint session of Congress, address the American public, explain why this is not Iraq, why this is not Afghanistan, and why this is 1938 all over again. In your address, ask Congress for a declaration of war. It will pass and you will be a real, not a “proportional” wartime president.
This is a painfully immature and naive analysis that seems to assume that the American military still has options (other than flattening cities, taking out energy and civilian infrastructure - which would be war crimes). It also assumes that the Iranians would bow to such destruction, and that the US military could actually prevent the Iranians from launching further attacks on ships and neighbours. And what arrogance, to assume that the US has the right to cast aside the interests of Gulf countries, much of which would become uninhabitable once their desalination plants are destroyed by Iranian retaliation. What happens to global energy supplies and the economies of US allies? And then there will be the massive death toll on both sides. Let’s face it, the US cannot defeat Iran at an acceptable cost and this war was a huge strategic mistake.
IMHO, the fundamental flaw in this argument is the assumption that enough bombing will inevitably bring Iran to its knees.
Military superiority can destroy infrastructure and reduce Iran’s ability to fight, but history repeatedly shows that bombing does not necessarily make a population or regime surrender. It can just as easily harden resistance, strengthen the regime’s hold over its population and create years of wider conflict. The West may eventually declare a military “victory,” while leaving behind a strategically worse and far more unstable reality.
There is also a wider lesson from Ukraine. In 1994, Ukraine surrendered the nuclear weapons on its territory in return for security assurances from Russia, the United States and the United Kingdom. Those assurances plainly did not prevent Russia’s subsequent aggression.
Whatever one thinks of the Iranian regime, other countries will be watching and drawing the obvious conclusion: states possessing nuclear weapons are attacked less readily than states which give them up. Advocating unconditional surrender through escalating destruction may therefore make future nuclear proliferation more likely, not less.