Peace in Our Time
La Grande Middle East Démarche
Facts are hard things. But they focus the mind and move the needle — sometimes dramatically. This may be one of those times.
Let’s assemble the facts.
Israel isn’t going away.
Hamas is going away.
Iran is not going to save Hamas.
Hezbollah is not going to save Hamas.
The Houthis are not going to save Hamas.
Campus protestors aren’t going to save Hamas.
The U.S. will devastate Iran and Hezbollah if Israel is seriously attacked and can’t handle Iran and Hezbollah on its own.
Hama’s remaining leaders can cut an exile deal or become martyrs. If they wanted to be martyrs, they’d be at the front line. Instead, they are hiding behind hostages and civilians. Hence, they seek exile.
Saudia Arabia wants ties with Israel for defense and commercial reasons.
With Gaza free of Hamas, a demilitarized Palestinian state becomes feasible.
The deal would entail:
Freeing all hostages.
Disbanding Hamas.
Exile of remaining Hamas leadership — political and military — to a country where they are unable to operate, such as Saudi Arabia.
The creation of a demilitarized Palestinian state comprising Gaza and the West Bank.
U.S., Israel, and Saudi Arabia mutual defense treaty.
Hezbollah’s destruction of its offensive missiles.
Iran’s elimination of its nuclear program and long-range offensive missiles.
A joint U.S./Israeli peace agreement with Iran.
Western assistance to rebuild Gaza and Lebanon as commercial, tech, and tourism centers.
A permanent international force, including the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, to enforce the Palestinian state’s demilitarization.
A Deal Without Losers.
This deal:
Lets Hamas declare victory.
Lets Israel declare victory.
Lets Iran declare victory.
Lets Saudi Arabia declare victory.
Lets Hezbollah declare victory.
Lets the Palestinians declare victory.
Lets the U.S. declare victory.
At least some of this démarche is clearly in the works. The delay in Israel’s attacking Hamas in Rafah is suggestive. So are the continuing discussions of a joint U.S., Israel, and Saudi defense pact. Then we have the coordinated shadow boxing of Iran and Israel.
History’s Lesson — The Impossible Is Always Possible
WWI and WWII ended with massive, overnight changes to borders and geopolitical alliances. At the end of WWII we were firebombing Germany and Japan and attacking Japan with nuclear weapons. Overnight, they became staunch allies. So, yes, the impossible can and does happen. That too is a hard fact.
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