Economics Matters -- Blog/Podcast/Financial Riddler/MaxiFi Puzzler
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How fast can the world’s fastest train run?
a. 159 MPH
b. 181 MPH
c. 228 MPH
d. 375 MPH
And the answer is …
The answer is 375 MPH. This record was set a decade ago by the Japanese L0 series maglev experimental train. The train is set to begin operations in another decade. Why so long? Construction delays. The fastest train now in service is the Shanghai maglev train, which can reach 268 MPH. Maglev trains levitate. The fastest wheel-on-rail train is also Chinese and reaches 217 MPH. Amtrak’s just released new Acela trains can reach 160 MPH. In China, roughly 300 cities are connected by high speed. In the US, the answer is 5.
How many cells are there in the human body?
a. 30 - 40 thousand
b. 30 - 40 million
c. 30 - 40 billion
d. 30 - 40 trillion
And the answer is …
The answer is 30 to 40 trillion. Most are red blood cells. Men have more cells than women everywhere except, it seems, in their brains.
What share of American females reach age 50 without ever having married?
a. 5 percent
b. 13 percent
c. 20 percent
d. 35 percent
And the answer is …
The answer is roughly 20 percent.
What share of American women have four or more children?
a. 21 percent
b. 15 percent
c. 12 percent
d. 7 percent
And the answer is …
The answer is roughly 12 percent. On average, women who have children have 2.4.
In how many years will non-whites comprise the majority of Americans?
a. 40 years
b. 30 years
c. 20 years
d. 10 years
And the answer is …
The answer is 20 years. But this estimate is based on 2020 data when annual net immigration was roughly 2 million higher than is now the case. But even assuming this year’s net immigration count continues into the future, non-whites will still comprise the majority. It will just take five years longer. Hispanics will represent roughly 30 percent of Americans by mid century — up from 20 percent now.
How many Americans have died since 1960 from illegal drug use?
a. 10 million
b. 7.5 million
c. 5 million
d. 1.5 million
And the answer is …
The answer is 1.5 million. This figure exceeds all deaths of US military in all prior American wars.
Is Germany larger than Texas?
a. Yes
b. No
And the answer is …
The answer is no. Texas is almost twice as large. Yet Germany’s GDP is 1.7 times larger.
Is the US in far worse fiscal shape than Italy?
a. Yes
b. No
And the answer is …
The answer is yes. As this article describes, the US fiscal gap is 7.4% of GDP. This means our country needs to immediately and permanently raise taxes by 7.4% of this and all future years’ GDP to cover its projected government (federal and state) spending. Alternatively, we need to immediately and permanently cut government (federal and state) spending by 7.4% of this year’s and all future years’ GDP to live within projected receipts. Raising 7.4 percent of GDP via tax hikes requires an immediate and permanent 27 percent jump in all federal and state taxes. Lowering spending to satisfy the government’s intertemporal budget requires a 24 percent immediate and permanent cut in all federal and state non-interest outlays. Unlike deficit accounting, fiscal gap accounting puts all off-the-book liabilities on the books.
Does the ratio of debt-to-GDP tell us anything about a country’s fiscal condition?
a. Yes
b. No
And the answer is …
The answer is no. The reason is simple. When the government takes money from us and promises to pay it back, whether in full or in part, in the future, the government is free to call the money it takes a) “borrowing” and the money it pays back “return of principal plus interest less a net tax” or b) “taxes” and the money it pays back “transfer payments.” The former choice of words increases official debt. The later choice does not. Hence, the debt-to-GDP ratio is a linguistic construct, not a meaningful economic measure. Just as the equations of physics don’t pin down absolute time or distance, the equations of economics don’t define official deficits or debt. For a formal proof see this paper. For a simpler presentation, see this article in Science.
Are new job openings higher or lower than they were in 2022?
a. Higher
b. Lower
And the answer is …
The answer, as the chart below shows, is lower — dramatically lower. According to AI, AI is the cause with 40 percent of employers reporting AI-based cutbacks in new hiring. Ironically, the tech sector is being particularly hard hit. AI is biting the hand that created it. This is fully in line with a paper I co-authored with Seth Benzell and Guillermo Lagarde, which is summarized here.
By the way, the Administration’s attack on universities has devastated new hiring. In economics, this Fall’s new academic job listings are running below half the number posted by this time in the Fall of 2015.
Question 5 assumes the definition of white doesn't change. In the 1800s, Germans were not white. A better question would be Is Race genetic? Here is an explanation https://www.sapiens.org/biology/is-race-real/
I built the JOLTS program at BLS. The recent decline in openings, I think is a “right sizing “ of the opening level post Covid. Also , yes, it is declining as it works before any other economic decline.
We are likely headed to a recession not withstanding AI. And asking AI to answer all of your questions seems wierd.