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John is 57, single, childless, and lives in Missouri. He earns $125,000 a year and expects his salary to keep even with inflation. He has $500,000 in regular assets and $500,000 in an IRA. He rents for $3,000 a month and expects to continue renting at that rate apart from annual inflation increases. John’s maximum age of life is 100 and he invests in safe, inflation-indexed bonds on which he earns 2 percent real per year. John started working at age 20 earning $20K as a plumber’s assistant. Over time his earnings grew at a steady 4.5 percent rate. According to my company’s economics-based planning tool, MaxiFi Planner, John can sustainably spend $29,952 per year, measured in today’s dollars, if, as planned, he retires at age 62 and takes Social Security at that age. Here’s John’s lifetime budget. All amounts are shown in present value.
John feels rich. After all, he’s a millionaire! But he can only afford to spend $2,496 a month. John loves to eat out and typically spends $100 a day at restaurants and Starbucks. That’s $3K a month, leaving him no money left over for clothing, gas, car repairs, vacations, cell service, internet service, … — you name it. Something has to give. What if John works till age 67 and takes Social Security at 70, when his benefit will start 76 percent higher adjusted for inflation? What is the percentage increase in John’s sustainable annual real spending?
a. 11 percent
b. 29 percent
c. 39 percent
d. 56 percent
e. 67 percent
f. 88 percent
And the answer is …
The answer is 56 percent. This increase in annual discretionary spending present values to $482,213 (See the chart below.). This represents the dollar cost of John’s retiring and filing early.
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DOGE head, Elon Musk, has claimed that more than 20 million Americans over age 100 are deceased, but still collecting Social Security. What number of Americans over age 100 are, in fact, deceased, but still collecting Social Security?
a. 1-299
b. 299-499
c. 500-1,499
d. 1,500 - 999,999
e. 10,000,000 - 19,999,999
f. Over 20 million
And the answer is …
The answer, according to the Social Security Administration, is roughly 250.
Where does the U.S. rank among countries in life expectancy at birth?
a. 1st
b. 9th
c. 14th
d. 23rd
e. 37th
f. 48th
And the answer is …
The answer is 48th. Albania is ranked 47th. Our life expectancy is 79.6 years. Hong Kong has the highest life expectancy at 85.8 years. Japan is second highest at 85.0 years. And South Korea comes in third at 84.5 years. Our country’s miserable life expectancy reflects, in large part, over 100,000 overdose deaths per year as well as over 23,000 annual gun-related deaths. Poor quality healthcare quality is also part of the story. This study by the Commonwealth Fund compares U.S. healthcare outcomes with those of nine other advanced economies. The U.S. comes in 10th — by a mile. Meanwhile, as this chart, from the Kaiser Family Foundation, shows, we’re spending far more per person on healthcare. Want to consider how to fix the healthcare system? Read this proposed radical reform called the Better Care Plan. It calls for Medicare for All, but competition-based Medicare for All. Think of it as Medicare Advantage for All, but with much tighter regulation of Advantage plans to eliminate their ability to do cherry picking in any form of good over bad risks.
Under Trump I, half of U.S. product categories were subject to, on average, minor tariffs or economically equivalent trade barriers. What fraction of products are currently subject to tariffs and/or trade barriers?
a. 30 percent
c. 50 percent
d. 70 percent
e. 90 percent
f. 100 percent
And the answer is …
The answer is 90 percent with the average tariff rate rising by a factor of 6 percent — from 1.5 percent to 8.4 percent.
Consumer confidence, which is a leading indicator of impending recession, is at its lowest level since
a. January 2023
b. January 2022
c. January 2021
d. January 2020
e. January 2019
And the answer is …
The answer is January 2021.
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What is the range of the longest-range EV?
a. 375 miles
b. 420 miles
c. 457 miles
d. 512 miles
e. 617 miles
And the answer is …
The answer is 512 miles. That’s the range of the Lucid Air, whose starting prices i $71,400. This car is incredibly fast. It can reach 60 mph in 3 seconds! China’s BYD (Build Your Dreams) EV would be half as expensive were it available in the U.S. free of tariff. It’s range is 376 miles. BYD’s charger is twice as powerful as Tesla’s and can full charge its battery in five minutes!
How many drones is the Ukraine currently producing per year?
a. 5,0000
b. 70,000
c. 122,121
d. 635,000
e. 2.5 million
And the answer is …
The answer is 2.5 million! But I’ve heard projections of 4 million for 2025. Roughly half of Russian casualties are now due to Ukrainian drones. And Russian oil production is purported to be at a 20-year low due to attacks by Ukrainian drones.
If you are reading this post it is unlikely you fall into one of the 2 categories that dramatically lowers the US life expectancy, overdose and gun death. I would argue it is also likely you have better than average health care and probably pay more attention to a healthy lifestyle. Therfore, statistically speaking, you have a pretty good chance of exceeding Hong Kong's 85.8 yrs life expectancy.
I believe musk has claimed more than 20M people over 100 are on the SS roles but i have yet to see where he claims that they are actually collecting a check. Yes his proclamations are misleading (likely intentionally) but not necessarily false.