The Financial Riddler 5-1-24

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1. Is the Pentagon the world’s largest office building?

   a. Yes

   b. No

And the answer is …

The answer is no. The world’s largest office building is now the Surat Diamond Burse in Surat, India. Take a look at the linked CNN video. It’s testimony to the likelihood, projected in this article (see table 9) entitled The Future of Global Economic Power, that India’s economy will exceed ours by century’s end. China will exceeds India’s. Together, China and India will account for 43 percent of world GDP. India’s 2100 share of world GDP is projected at 16.2 percent. The U.S. share is projected at 12.3 percent. And the EU plus UK share is projected at 13.5 percent.

2. Nearly 21 million Americans participate in state and local pension plans. What is their red ink — the present value difference between projected outlays and receipts — of these plans?

   a. $1 trillion

   b. -$1 trillion

   c. No one knows

And the answer is …

The answer is no one knows for sure. Pew’s 2021 study of just state plans suggest it exceeds $1 trillion.

3. Who is the world’s largest oil producer?

   a. Saudia Arabia

   b. Russia

   c. Iran

   d. United States

   e. All other countries combined

And the answer is …

The answer is the United States. According to the latest data compiled by Torsten Slok, Apollo Investment’s Chief Economist, the U.S. accounted for 19 percent of world oil in 2022. Saudia Arabia was at 13 percent and Russia at 12 percent. Canada provided 6 percent, Iraq 5 percent, and China 4 percent. Hence, North America is currently responsible for pumping a quarter of world oil in the market.

4. Firms not listed on the S&P 500 account for what share of U.S. employment?

   a. 20 percent

   b. 40 percent

   c. 60 percent

   d. 80 percent

And the answer is …

The answer according to Thorsten Slok, Apollo’s Chief Economist, is 80 percent. This complements his finding that 87 percent of firms with $100 million or more in revenues are private.

5. How many recessions has the U.S. had since 1950?

   a. 17

   b. 13

   c. 11

   d. 8

   e. 4

And the answer is …

The answer in 11. See this chart c/o the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

6. By what percentage did the S&P 500 fall in April?

   a. 9.7 percent

   b. 7.7 percent

   c. 5.3 percent

   d. 4.2 percent

   e. 1.9 percent

And the answer is …

The answer is 4.2 percent. But year to date, the S&P is up 6.0 percent.

7. What is the current — 5/1/24 — real yield on 30-year TIPS — Treasury Inflation Protected Securities?

   a. 3.1 percent

   b. 2.4 percent

   c. 1.9 percent

   d. 0.8 percent

And the answer is …

The answer is 2.4 percent. This is the highest it’s been since 2008.

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