When it comes to forging peace in Ukraine, President Trump needs a term sheet on which everyone can unhappily agree. Here’s my proposed Trump Accord.
A permanent cease fire and armistice agreement between Russian and Ukraine. All troops withdraw 100 miles from the front line. Full prisoner exchange. Free movement of Ukrainians from occupied territory to unoccupied territory.
A joint US and Chinese peace-keeping force to jointly patrol the buffer zone.
U.S., EU, and UK recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea.
U.S., EU, and UK end sanctions on Russia.
U.S., EU, UK, and Ukraine sign a mutual defense agreement stipulating that an attack on one is an attack on all.
Forward stationing of US, EU, and UK troops in Ukraine.
No Ukrainian recognition of Russian territorial claims on any part of Ukraine.
Establishment of a free-trade zone between the EU, UK, US, and Russia.
Establishment of a free-trade zone between the EU, UK, US, and Ukraine.
Restoration to Russia of seized assets and normalization of relations with the US, EU, and UK.
The US would restore full and free military support of Ukraine in the event Russia refuses to agree to these terms. The US would end military support for Ukraine in the event Ukraine refuses to agree to these terms.
The Trump Accord Lets Each Side Declare Victory
Russia gets formal recognition of its conquest of Crimea and tacit recognition of other occupied parts of Eastern Ukraine. It gets free-trade with the US, EU, and UK, which, economically speaking, exceeds the value of EU membership. Its seized assets are restored and its pariah state ends. It can continue to claim, but not take ownership of unconquered parts of Ukraine. Russians stop dying.
Ukraine gets the security guarantees it needs, including effective membership in NATO. It gets free-trade with the US, EU, and UK, which, economically speaking, exceeds the value of EU membership. Ukraine can continue to claim, but not take ownership of conquered parts of Ukraine, including Crimea. Ukrainians stop dying.
Why Propose The Trump Accord?
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I don’t pretend to be a foreign policy expert. I have no training in political science. But having had numerous on-the-air and off-the-air discussions about the conflict with Ukrainians and Russian experts, having personally spent years working in Russia, and having briefly consulted for both governments, the set of feasible arrangements seems clear.
The Trump Accord appears to lie in the Pareto Set — the terms economists use to reference arrangements where no one loses, on net. It also appears to provide each side with enough of the available pie to eagerly agree. This is particularly true in light of the plan’s proposed penalties on parties that refuse to agree. At a minimum, this term sheet provides a basis for reaching a final agreement — something general, time-limited meetings, that comprise press events, not serious negotiations, will never do.
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Dr. Kotlikoff - Seems like a good solution - now. However, recall the Ukraine was once number three on the list of countries with nuclear weapons. In 1994 they agreed to surrender their nukes in favor of guarantees of their sovereignty by all the other nuclear powers (see the Budapest Memorandum). Would Putin have invaded (violating the 1994 agreements) if Ukraine had nuclear weapons? I think not. If I were Ukraine I suppose they have little choice if the NATO countries force this issue. However, if I were them I would be thinking “here we go again”. They really can’t trust the U.S. to stand by its commitments anymore. Particularly, because Trump can’t be trusted any farther than you can throw him.
Trump just announced no US boots on the ground