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Our Sickening and Dangerous Puppy
Ten days back I wrote about Trump’s “Worsening and Consequential Narcissism”. Trump has always been obscene, in word and deed. But in effectively declaring he will invade Greenland and tariff to death any country that objects, he is crossing a line that he and his associates, including J.D. Vance, Marco Rubio, Pete Hegseth, Scott Bessent, and Stephen Miller, will likely live to regret.
A large number of supposedly intelligent elites were sure they could get away with doing and saying whatever they pleased only to end up in jail and/or as pariahs. The recent list includes O.J. Simpson, Bernie Madoff, Bill Cosby, R. Kelly, Mel Gibson, Harvey Weinstein, Jeffery Epstein, Prince Andrew, Elizabeth Holmes, Sam Bankman-Fried, Rudolf Giuliani, Robert Menendez, Sean Combs, Vladimir Putin, and Nicolás Maduro.
Trump clearly thinks what happened to them can’t happen to him. After all, he’s escaped two impeachments and four criminal indictments. He’s Teflon Don, proclaiming "I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody, and I wouldn't lose any voters, OK?"
But Trump’s judgment, always missing in action, has seemingly left our solar system. Yes, Trump’s threat to start a nuclear trade war with our closest allies, if they don’t welcome our Greenland invasion force, may be another TACO trade in the offing. But he’s made taking Greenland a personal imperative. Backing off that hyper stupidity would, at this point, be akin to renouncing his foundational stupidity — using tariffs to make American great again.
When the First Dane Dies
Twisted Trump (TT) claimed today that he was justified in occupying Greenland because he hadn’t been awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. Is he an oversized five-year-old?
Here’s his message to the Norwegian PM.
Considering your Country decided not to give me the Nobel Peace Prize for having stopped 8 Wars PLUS, I no longer feel an obligation to think purely of Peace, although it will always be predominant, but can now think about what is good and proper for the United States of America. … The World is not secure unless we have Complete and Total Control of Greenland. Thank you!
Compare this with Hitler Lebensraum justification for invading Poland.
Ich habe meine Totenkopfverbände... mit dem Befehl bereitgestellt – vorläufig nur im Osten –, alle Menschen polnischer Abstammung und Sprache erbarmungslos und mitleidslos niederzumachen. Nur so werden wir den uns notwendigen Lebensraum (Lebensraum) gewinnen.
I have placed my death-head formations in readiness—for the present only in the East—with orders to them to kill without pity or mercy all men, women, and children of Polish race and language. Only thus will we gain the living space (Lebensraum) which we need.
No, TT is not pledging to exterminate Greenland’s 56 thousand population. They have, after all, the right skin color. But he is laying the ground for an invasion. When that happens, the Danes, who are reinforcing their combat troops in Greenland, will fight. Yes, they only have a handful of such soldiers. But they aren’t there to stop our Delta Force. They are there on the off chance that their potential deaths will deter TT.
After all, as soon as the first of them dies, Trump and Co. will become Putin and Co. They will be sanctioned and charged with war crimes — by the EU, the UK, and a multitude of other nations. America will no longer be the home of the free and the brave. It will be the home of the criminally insane.
As for the US and the us, we’ll be treated like Russia and Russians. Our exports will be banned as will our presence. No more skiing trips to Davos for our titans of industry. No more cruise trips to the Med for our upper-incomers. No more Munich Oktoberfest for our party animals. No more La Scala for our opera buffs. No more London Bridge for our anglophiles. No more state dinners at Windsor Castle for TT.
And no more trips to Europe for our officials to insult our “allies.” As soon as they set foot in the Old Country, they’ll be escorted to a cell in the Hague. Perhaps Karoline Leavitt will be given special visiting rights.
As for our 100K troops in Europe, they’ll be given a couple months to pack up and head home. America’s bases in Europe will be closed. America’s defense industry, whose major foreign customer is Europe, will be dead in the water. So will many other US industries. After all, Europe accounts for 20 percent of our exports.
The breakup of NATO will likely lead to swift invasion of the Baltics by Putin and war between Europe and Russia. As for Taiwan, it will surely capitulate to China without firing a shot.
But no matter. We’ll have an unlimited supply of ice from our new territory and can vacation in Caracas, after we’ve made sure we’re locked and loaded and have bought the right banned vaccines on the black market.
The Benedict Arnold Prize
TT has, today, apparently ruled himself out for the Nobel Peace Prize. He doesn’t need one. He has his. He grabbed the Prize awarded to Venezuela’s María Corina Machado. Yes, she graciously offered it to him. But no self-respecting adult would take it let alone do so in exchange for a bag of MAGA swag. But now that TT has “his” Nobel, he should strike himself a Benedict Arnold Medal for Highest Treason to the Nation. No one is more deserving.
The Market’s Take and Your Opportunity to Play It Safe
As I write at midnight on Monday, January 19th, the Futures Market believes that we’re experiencing another TACO — Trump Always Chickens Out — moment. Consequently, it’s pricing less than a 1 percent decline in the S&P associated with Trump’s expanded Greenland threats.
Maybe the market has it right. But the top NY Times story is, “Trump is Pushing the US-European Alliance Onto a Precipice.” The top Wall Street Journal headline is, “Europe Contends with a Big New Threat: The US.” The top Financial Times headline is, “Denmark Dispatches Additional Troops to Greenland as Tensions Rise.” And the top BBC headline is, “Trump says He will ‘100%’ Carry Out Greenland Tariffs Threat, as EU Vows to Protect its Interests.”
Assuming we continue to have free elections — a big if, Trump’s “forever” actions will likely be reversed by a future, if not the next President. The market gets this potentiality, which also helps explain why the Futures Market isn’t freaking.
This said, individual market participants are freaking. Take a look at the VIX — the stock market’s perceived volatility index. It’s risen 20 percent since Friday. This spells rocky roads, both up and down, ahead. It also tells us to rebalance our portfolios away from stocks and longer term bonds to maintain our overall risk exposure. A run on the market — which is “extremely overvalued” according to Apollo Chief Economist, Torsten Slok — will be a run toward safety, i.e., US Treasuries and corporate bonds. This will raise their price. But, remarkably, we’re seeing the loss of safe haven status for US fixed income. For example, yields have slightly risen and prices slightly fallen of late for the 10-Year Treasury.
Economics doesn’t counsel timing the market for return. It does counsel timing it, as in rebalancing your portfolio, for risk. And with the current market valuation, the current market risk assessment, and the current infant playing President, taking the opportunity tomorrow morning to rebalance your portfolio makes tons of sense. Moreover, if the market hasn’t tanked, it will be psychologically far easier to do so.
And now words from your sponsor — Me!
Thanks, All, for your comments. I'd travel to Europe this week. I may be our last chanced for many a year.
Yours, Larry
Not surprised as he is really isn't very bright.