I am of the opinion that the only policy set that can prevent a catastrophic financial crisis from engulfing the US in the next decade is severe financial repression. Required steps include institutional changes like cracking down on private equity, hedge funds, "non-profit" endowments and foundations. And, vast increases in tax revenue which can only be obtained from from broad based excise taxes such as a VAT. The income tax is mined out and wealth taxes are counter productive.
A carbon tax is certainly worth including in the portfolio, if only for the political valance. But, unless the tax is either universal (ha ha ha) or backed up by a very broad import tax on all goods and services from non-conforming countries, it will simply complete the destruction of all productive activity in the US.
Hi Walter, Pls take a look at "You're Hired" at kotlikoff.net. It's a free downloadable book I wrote. It has some ideas that are feasible and radical, but not draconian. It does not include a carbon tax, which I'd impose immediately. At the time I wrote the book -- 2015, I wasn't attuned to the climate crisis and hadn't worked on the optimal tax path problem. best, Larry
Hi Walter, Pls take a look at "You're Hired" at kotlikoff.net. It's a free downloadable book I wrote. It has some ideas that are feasible and radical, but not draconian. It does not include a carbon tax, which I'd impose immediately. At the time I wrote the book -- 2015, I wasn't attuned to the climate crisis and hadn't worked on the optimal tax path problem. best, Larry
Hi Walter, Pls take a look at "You're Hired" at kotlikoff.net. It's a free downloadable book I wrote. It has some ideas that are feasible and radical, but not draconian. It does not include a carbon tax, which I'd impose immediately. At the time I wrote the book -- 2015, I wasn't attuned to the climate crisis and hadn't worked on the optimal tax path problem. best, Larry
I thought this website was for people interested in maximizing their Social Security and steering their finances. When did it become a political platform with instant paid subscribers? Aiya
Hi Francesca, About 40 percent of the posts are about personal finance, including maximizing your Social Security. I have around 450 postings you can scan through. Please just read/watch the ones on personal finance. Think of this as a website with multiple parts or a newspaper with a sports section, which you don't follow. My opinion is just mine and meant only for those who wish to hear it. This said, it's founded on fact /reasoned analysis and may provide some insight. The fact that the President is effectively setting a global carbon tax -- at the right level -- is, I think, interesting and comprises a major reason for him to be patient in lifting the blockade. best, Larry
Please don't ignore what the rest of the story has to be for people to fare well.
Oil prices remaining this high for a sustained period, on their own (i.e. absent other interventions), will hurt billions of people around the world (incldg in the US) because it will eventually cause a global recession, i.e. demand destruction.
The right way to go about it is to build (via capital investment) significant renewables capacity so that global energy demands can be met while oil consumption gets reduced. The time scale for such investment to bear fruit is of course long, so we should have been doing it for years. I wish Trump and the GOP in the US hadn't canceled many of the investments for renewables that were planned under the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act when they did budget rescissions and passed the OBBBA last year.
Trump is nothing but an arsonist who then pretends to be the firefighter!
Dr. Kotlikoff, I'm a big fan having bought two of your books and love the MaxiFi planner tool but the political leanings in your posts are starting to be off-putting to me. The country is about 50:50 with regard to voting... just saying, I want to tune in to learn about personal finance, not negative references to politicians you don't like. Obviously, it is your platform to do as you like. I think I am going to take a break.
We can get off of fossil fuels without war, without killing, without violence. Alternative energy sources are already proving to be cost effective. Why doesn't the Trump administration promote the use of these alternative energy sources instead of supporting the oil industry?
Hi Jeff, We and the Israelis have reduced the Iranian killing and terror-export machine dramatically at an extremely low cost in terms of Iranian innocents' casualties. The Trump admin is only doing the right thing on climate right now because it's locked into doing so. best, Larry
Hi Larry, l think people are and should be so distrusting of and weary of trump given his penchant for crazy, purposefully misleading communication, with including with adversaries— that nothing he ever does or will do will be satisfactory. We need new leadership—!period!
I used to think maybe he was just crazy or stupid — but now l realize he talks in circles to confuse, like a master manipulator. This so goes against any rational adult behavior that he will never be trusted to do anything good. I for one cannot wait for time to pass and we’re done with the guy. I think if the man does anything good for this country it’ll be accidental at best.
Thank you for explaining, Larry. I appreciate your thoughts on this and other issues. I agree and appreciate your point that the higher price of oil as a result of the war is fostering interest in alternative energy, likely an unintended consequence created by the Trump administration. I hope that in the future humankind can find peaceful ways to resolve their differences.
I truly don’t understand how you think. This will not end well, because Trump, and those he has surrounded himself with, don’t understand any other motive than advancing their self-interest. Patience will require self-sacrifice - enduring those who question his judgement. Trump can’t handle that.
I’ll be cancelling my subscription to MaxiFi. I rely on that program for sound, dispassionate, balanced advice. You don’t seem capable of that anymore.
Sorry, the software is very helpful. But I can’t trust it anymore.
Best of luck. I hope you’re right, but Trump has never shown an ability to end anything well. This will not be the exception.
Hi Bob, Three things. First, you're probably right on Trump and his collection of morons. No brains and non patience. Second, you don't need to trust MaxiFi. You can check MaxiFi -- just look at its reports and see with your eyeballs that they are correct to the dollar. There is no reason to trust MaxiFi. You can see in two secs that it works. Third, my advice here, if you reread, is that Trump and his co-morons be patient and maintain the embargo/blockade. Fourth, saying Trump is doing something good without realizing it is hardly an endorsement. I ran against him in 2016, remember. I'm hardly a fan. Finally, Trump is 90 percent awful/evil, but not 100 percent. I've come to learn this. best, Larry
Clear, concise and factual. Unfortunately Trump supporters will never read this. DJT has and appeals to only those with a very short attention span. Like, "right now." trump still believes he can fool all of the people all of the time. Or enough to enrich his cronies. Geez.
Hi David, I think a quick glance at the postings on this site make clear where I stand on Putin, Putin's invasion of Ukraine, and Trump's support of Putin. But I don't think condemning all Russians for the acts of a small minority is either fair or in our national interest. The is doubly the case for academic interchange. Our paper was a pure academic analysis. Sanctions don't apply in this case. Pls read the paper. Andrey Polbin is a fantastic economist and the paper could not have been produced without his critical input. best, Larry
David, You are making up all manner of falsehoods about Andrey and me. For one, Andrey is not, by a mile, the governor of the bank of Russia and the paper was written before he took a research position at the bank. I suggest you unsubscribe and lower your blood pressure. Larry
Great, Larry, yes. Two things:
1. Raising the price of oil is an excellent carbon tax. It will cause the price of coal, natural gas, to rise too. Good classroom discussion item.
2. I thought at first it might just be his tariffs, if they're still alive. Less discriminate, to be sure.
I am of the opinion that the only policy set that can prevent a catastrophic financial crisis from engulfing the US in the next decade is severe financial repression. Required steps include institutional changes like cracking down on private equity, hedge funds, "non-profit" endowments and foundations. And, vast increases in tax revenue which can only be obtained from from broad based excise taxes such as a VAT. The income tax is mined out and wealth taxes are counter productive.
A carbon tax is certainly worth including in the portfolio, if only for the political valance. But, unless the tax is either universal (ha ha ha) or backed up by a very broad import tax on all goods and services from non-conforming countries, it will simply complete the destruction of all productive activity in the US.
Hi Walter, Pls take a look at "You're Hired" at kotlikoff.net. It's a free downloadable book I wrote. It has some ideas that are feasible and radical, but not draconian. It does not include a carbon tax, which I'd impose immediately. At the time I wrote the book -- 2015, I wasn't attuned to the climate crisis and hadn't worked on the optimal tax path problem. best, Larry
Hi Walter, Pls take a look at "You're Hired" at kotlikoff.net. It's a free downloadable book I wrote. It has some ideas that are feasible and radical, but not draconian. It does not include a carbon tax, which I'd impose immediately. At the time I wrote the book -- 2015, I wasn't attuned to the climate crisis and hadn't worked on the optimal tax path problem. best, Larry
Hi Walter, Pls take a look at "You're Hired" at kotlikoff.net. It's a free downloadable book I wrote. It has some ideas that are feasible and radical, but not draconian. It does not include a carbon tax, which I'd impose immediately. At the time I wrote the book -- 2015, I wasn't attuned to the climate crisis and hadn't worked on the optimal tax path problem. best, Larry
I thought this website was for people interested in maximizing their Social Security and steering their finances. When did it become a political platform with instant paid subscribers? Aiya
Hi Francesca, About 40 percent of the posts are about personal finance, including maximizing your Social Security. I have around 450 postings you can scan through. Please just read/watch the ones on personal finance. Think of this as a website with multiple parts or a newspaper with a sports section, which you don't follow. My opinion is just mine and meant only for those who wish to hear it. This said, it's founded on fact /reasoned analysis and may provide some insight. The fact that the President is effectively setting a global carbon tax -- at the right level -- is, I think, interesting and comprises a major reason for him to be patient in lifting the blockade. best, Larry
Please don't ignore what the rest of the story has to be for people to fare well.
Oil prices remaining this high for a sustained period, on their own (i.e. absent other interventions), will hurt billions of people around the world (incldg in the US) because it will eventually cause a global recession, i.e. demand destruction.
The right way to go about it is to build (via capital investment) significant renewables capacity so that global energy demands can be met while oil consumption gets reduced. The time scale for such investment to bear fruit is of course long, so we should have been doing it for years. I wish Trump and the GOP in the US hadn't canceled many of the investments for renewables that were planned under the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act when they did budget rescissions and passed the OBBBA last year.
Trump is nothing but an arsonist who then pretends to be the firefighter!
Hi Double-A, I'm with you 100 percent, but better late than never. best, Larry
Nice try, Lariry Kotlikofifi 🤣🤣
Dr. Kotlikoff, I'm a big fan having bought two of your books and love the MaxiFi planner tool but the political leanings in your posts are starting to be off-putting to me. The country is about 50:50 with regard to voting... just saying, I want to tune in to learn about personal finance, not negative references to politicians you don't like. Obviously, it is your platform to do as you like. I think I am going to take a break.
We can get off of fossil fuels without war, without killing, without violence. Alternative energy sources are already proving to be cost effective. Why doesn't the Trump administration promote the use of these alternative energy sources instead of supporting the oil industry?
Hi Jeff, We and the Israelis have reduced the Iranian killing and terror-export machine dramatically at an extremely low cost in terms of Iranian innocents' casualties. The Trump admin is only doing the right thing on climate right now because it's locked into doing so. best, Larry
Good analysis. Donnie just might make EVs popular again.
Unintended byproducts of our actions are good to note but we should not praise the agent. Sadly serendipity is not reliable.
Hi Larry, l think people are and should be so distrusting of and weary of trump given his penchant for crazy, purposefully misleading communication, with including with adversaries— that nothing he ever does or will do will be satisfactory. We need new leadership—!period!
I used to think maybe he was just crazy or stupid — but now l realize he talks in circles to confuse, like a master manipulator. This so goes against any rational adult behavior that he will never be trusted to do anything good. I for one cannot wait for time to pass and we’re done with the guy. I think if the man does anything good for this country it’ll be accidental at best.
Just my thoughts.
Thank you for explaining, Larry. I appreciate your thoughts on this and other issues. I agree and appreciate your point that the higher price of oil as a result of the war is fostering interest in alternative energy, likely an unintended consequence created by the Trump administration. I hope that in the future humankind can find peaceful ways to resolve their differences.
I truly don’t understand how you think. This will not end well, because Trump, and those he has surrounded himself with, don’t understand any other motive than advancing their self-interest. Patience will require self-sacrifice - enduring those who question his judgement. Trump can’t handle that.
I’ll be cancelling my subscription to MaxiFi. I rely on that program for sound, dispassionate, balanced advice. You don’t seem capable of that anymore.
Sorry, the software is very helpful. But I can’t trust it anymore.
Best of luck. I hope you’re right, but Trump has never shown an ability to end anything well. This will not be the exception.
Hi Bob, Three things. First, you're probably right on Trump and his collection of morons. No brains and non patience. Second, you don't need to trust MaxiFi. You can check MaxiFi -- just look at its reports and see with your eyeballs that they are correct to the dollar. There is no reason to trust MaxiFi. You can see in two secs that it works. Third, my advice here, if you reread, is that Trump and his co-morons be patient and maintain the embargo/blockade. Fourth, saying Trump is doing something good without realizing it is hardly an endorsement. I ran against him in 2016, remember. I'm hardly a fan. Finally, Trump is 90 percent awful/evil, but not 100 percent. I've come to learn this. best, Larry
Clear, concise and factual. Unfortunately Trump supporters will never read this. DJT has and appeals to only those with a very short attention span. Like, "right now." trump still believes he can fool all of the people all of the time. Or enough to enrich his cronies. Geez.
I am a Trump supporter and I endorse this message.
Saying "thank you" is not beyond me. I do not have TDS! Lol.
Hi David, I think a quick glance at the postings on this site make clear where I stand on Putin, Putin's invasion of Ukraine, and Trump's support of Putin. But I don't think condemning all Russians for the acts of a small minority is either fair or in our national interest. The is doubly the case for academic interchange. Our paper was a pure academic analysis. Sanctions don't apply in this case. Pls read the paper. Andrey Polbin is a fantastic economist and the paper could not have been produced without his critical input. best, Larry
David, You are making up all manner of falsehoods about Andrey and me. For one, Andrey is not, by a mile, the governor of the bank of Russia and the paper was written before he took a research position at the bank. I suggest you unsubscribe and lower your blood pressure. Larry