Hi All, Let's forget Biden and Harris. Let's also forget the bit about liberal's ranting. It's not ranting to point out that Trump is doing things that you would never do. But whether or not it's a rant, the issue is how the market will react and what is going to happen to your personal net wealth. I wrote this piece to protect my readers. You are nice enough to read what I write. I feel indebted to stay up till 3 AM typing frantically and hit the send button only to see, with horror, all the typos I included. They are fixed online. Let's discuss your portfolio. What's your take on the markets? best, Larry
I agree. But I do sense that 30-year TIPS have only one way to go, namely up and roughly 60 percent of the present value of the investment comes out before 30 years in semi-annual coupon payments. Also, if you hold TIPS in a tax-deferred or Roth retirement acct, you delay or entirely avoid the tax on the accruing interest inside the account.
I'd talk to the police who were attacked and the widows of the four policemen who committed suicide after January 6th. You aren't the arbiter of justice. The judges who sentenced these people are. So, stop pretending you know these traitors were being mistreated. You don't. This is just right wing kool aid you're drinking. As for these cabinet members, you'd be a better choice than any of them. You are clearly far more intelligent.
The thing I am most happy about is you still have no idea why you lost.
Re: the police....wish you had the same sympathy for the hundreds attacked during 2020. The Jan 6th rioters...the few hundred at most who were violent.... are people who already served more time than most people with similar offenses (some of whom served no time, and were granted bail thanks to Kamala fundraising). Anything extra is political imprisonment. And that's just the violent ones. The rest were basically nan and pop-pop taking selfies after being invited in. Spare me the pearl clutching.
How are the current appointees doing? How is the health of US citizens? RFK has litigated against these seed oil sales men for decades....you probably think he's "anti vax." (hint: he's not). Gabbard is worse than Haines? We know this? And yes, Lloyd Austin has done such a fine job....how many audits has the pentagon failed? Did you know they spent 16 million on ribeyes in September, and 6 million on lobster tails?
I know your arguments better than you know them yourself; I'd suggest holding off on saying someone is drinking kool aid.....maybe check in on ground.news from time to time to check your blind spots.
I was prepared to disagree with you, but then I remembered that for the next four years those numbers are going to be coming from an administration that is vested in proving it has met its campaign promises of wiping out inflation.
Hey, listen up! 30-Year TIPS are only risk-free if you wait 30 years for them to mature. If you try to cash them in before that, there’s a chance the principal value might go down (like if the long interest rate goes up). I think there’s a good chance long-term interest rates will go up as the US debt continues to grow faster than it's means. The only way to make TIPS risk-free is to have a ladder of TIPS that matures in times and amounts designed to match cash needs.
TIPS yields are stated in real terms. There are 52 TIPS of varying maturity currenrtly available. As of today, the last data in each row below shows the Asked Yield to Maturity in real terms. So, for example the TIPS maturing 2/15/204 us currently yeilding 2.35% real. If you bought and held it to maturity its principal and interest payments over time would yield 2.35% above infation (whatever inflation turns out to be). Note that TIPS are currently not available at maturities ranging between 1/15/2035 and 2/15/2040. The 1/15/2035 TIPS just closed at auction yesterday so it is not shown in the table below but it will be available in secondary markets in the next few days. If your building a ladder you have to either load up on 1/15/2035 TIPS or 2/15/2040 TIPS to cover the gap between those dates. Treasury is currently issuing new 10 year TIPS every 1/15 and 7/15 so over time the gap will be filled in with new issues.
Description Ask Yield to Maturity
UNITED STATES TREAS NTS SER X-2025 0.12500% 04/15/2025 0.657
UNITED STATES TREAS NTS SER D-2025 0.37500% 07/15/2025 0.417
UNITED STATES TREAS NTS SER AE-2025 0.12500% 10/15/2025 0.945
UNITED STATES TREASURY 2.00000% 01/15/2026 1.563
UNITED STATES TREAS NTS 0.62500% 01/15/2026 TIPS 1.561
UNITED STATES TREAS NTS SER X-2026 0.12500% 04/15/2026 1.635
UNITED STATES TREAS NTS 0.12500% 07/15/2026 TIPS 1.301
UNITED STATES TREAS NTS SER AE-2026 0.12500% 10/15/2026 1.388
UNITED STATES TREAS BDS TIPS 2.37500% 01/15/2027 1.611
UNITED STATES TREAS NTS TIPS 0.37500% 01/15/2027 1.623
UNITED STATES TREAS NTS SER X-2027 0.12500% 04/15/2027 1.715
UNITED STATES TREAS NTS SER D-2027 0.37500% 07/15/2027 1.539
UNITED STATES TREAS NTS SER AE-2027 1.62500% 10/15/2027 1.599
UNITED STATES TREASURY 1.75000% 01/15/2028 1.767
UNITED STATES TREAS NTS SER A-2028 0.50000% 01/15/2028 1.769
UNITED STATES TREAS BDS 3.62500% 04/15/2028 1.819
UNITED STATES TREAS NTS SER X-2028 1.25000% 04/15/2028 1.847
UNITED STATES TREAS NTS SER D-2028 0.75000% 07/15/2028 1.706
UNITED STATES TREAS NTS SER AE-2028 2.37500% 10/15/2028 1.757
UNITED STATES TREAS BDS 2.50000% 01/15/2029 TIPS 1.875
UNITED STATES TREAS NTS SER A-2029 0.87500% 01/15/2029 1.88
UNITED STATES TREAS BDS 3.87500% 04/15/2029 1.943
UNITED STATES TREAS NTS SER X-2029 2.12500% 04/15/2029 1.947
UNITED STATES TREAS NTS SER D-2029 0.25000% 07/15/2029 1.826
UNITED STATES TREAS NTS SER AE-2029 1.62500% 10/15/2029 1.876
UNITED STATES TREAS NTS SER A-2030 0.12500% 01/15/2030 1.94
UNITED STATES TREAS NTS SER D-2030 0.12500% 07/15/2030 1.897
UNITED STATES TREAS NTS SER A-2031 0.12500% 01/15/2031 1.995
UNITED STATES TREAS NTS SER D-2031 0.12500% 07/15/2031 1.968
UNITED STATES TREAS NTS SER A-2032 0.12500% 01/15/2032 2.057
UNITED STATES TREASURY 3.37500% 04/15/2032 2.051
UNITED STATES TREAS NTS SER D-2032 0.62500% 07/15/2032 2.037
UNITED STATES TREAS NTS SER A-2033 1.12500% 01/15/2033 2.121
UNITED STATES TREAS NTS SER D-2033 1.37500% 07/15/2033 2.109
UNITED STATES TREAS NTS SER A-2034 1.75000% 01/15/2034 2.176
UNITED STATES TREAS NTS SER D-2034 1.87500% 07/15/2034 2.156
UNITED STATES TREAS BDS 2.12500% 02/15/2040 2.325
UNITED STATES TREAS BDS 2.12500% 02/15/2041 2.306
UNITED STATES TREAS BDS 0.75000% 02/15/2042 TIPS 2.354
UNITED STATES TREAS BDS 0.62500% 02/15/2043 2.393
UNITED STATES TREAS BDS 1.37500% 02/15/2044 2.41
UNITED STATES TREAS BDS 0.75000% 02/15/2045 2.433
UNITED STATES TREAS BDS 1.00000% 02/15/2046 TIPS 2.462
UNITED STATES TREAS BDS TIPS 0.87500% 02/15/2047 2.462
UNITED STATES TREAS BONDS 1.00000% 02/15/2048 2.461
UNITED STATES TREAS BDS SER TIPS 1.00000% 02/15/2049 2.469
UNITED STATES TREAS BDS SER TIPS 0.25000% 02/15/2050 2.459
UNITED STATES TREAS BDS SER TIPS 0.12500% 02/15/2051 2.437
UNITED STATES TREAS BDS SER TIPS 0.12500% 02/15/2052 2.422
UNITED STATES TREAS BDS SER TIPS 1.50000% 02/15/2053 2.467
UNITED STATES TREAS BDS 2.12500% 02/15/2054 SER TIP 2.468
TIPS: government math to protect you from government math. I don't waste one second trying to prognosticate. I use a time segmented (bucket) plan of diversified pies of ETFs. Sleep like a puppy.
Trump went to business school. And he's big into debt. Surely he knows that the easiest way to reduce a debt is massive inflation. If the U.S. owes 37 Trillion dollars, and he can inflate the currency by a factor of 10, the effective debt drops to $3.7 Trillion. So tariffs and a trade war is his way of reducing the debt! What could go wrong?
Another rant from an uber liberal, elite, northeastern academic. Ideology vs. ideology. I haven’t seen any commentary about what others might consider the disastrous and unethical behavior and policies of his predecessor. He was president for 4 years and we survived. Let’s all calm down. 2.5% real rate of return for 30 years may be ok if you are in your 70’s but might not be optimal for everybody. If you don’t hold those for 30 years, you might get a haircut. And it may be sooner rather than later based on what the bond market is saying.
The "disastrous" economy of strong growth in real GDP, wages, employment, stock market returns and household net worth? Or are you just writing about the price of a dozen eggs?
No. I was actually thinking of the hundreds of thousands of children that are missing as they tried to cross the US-Mexican border and are presumed to be exploited; the withdrawal from Afghanistan that resulted in the loss of life of 13 US service members that at the same time marginalized the loss of life and lifelong trauma of those that sacrificed for that country’s freedom and relegated that country back to a theocracy that denies women their basic rights; and ignoring the buildup of over 100,000 Russian troops for over a year at the Ukrainian border.
None of that is relevant to the rational economic discussion Kotlikoff was having. If your complaint is that he is an “elite”, you might ask yourself whether a member of an elite — in this case a highly published economist— might know more than you do.
Hi All, Let's forget Biden and Harris. Let's also forget the bit about liberal's ranting. It's not ranting to point out that Trump is doing things that you would never do. But whether or not it's a rant, the issue is how the market will react and what is going to happen to your personal net wealth. I wrote this piece to protect my readers. You are nice enough to read what I write. I feel indebted to stay up till 3 AM typing frantically and hit the send button only to see, with horror, all the typos I included. They are fixed online. Let's discuss your portfolio. What's your take on the markets? best, Larry
Hadn't thought about that nightmare. But who really knows.
Gold is very pricey. But I don't give investment advice.
You are using MaxiFi, right? best, Larry
I agree. But I do sense that 30-year TIPS have only one way to go, namely up and roughly 60 percent of the present value of the investment comes out before 30 years in semi-annual coupon payments. Also, if you hold TIPS in a tax-deferred or Roth retirement acct, you delay or entirely avoid the tax on the accruing interest inside the account.
Glad you are good with your portfolio, Ed.
I'd talk to the police who were attacked and the widows of the four policemen who committed suicide after January 6th. You aren't the arbiter of justice. The judges who sentenced these people are. So, stop pretending you know these traitors were being mistreated. You don't. This is just right wing kool aid you're drinking. As for these cabinet members, you'd be a better choice than any of them. You are clearly far more intelligent.
The thing I am most happy about is you still have no idea why you lost.
Re: the police....wish you had the same sympathy for the hundreds attacked during 2020. The Jan 6th rioters...the few hundred at most who were violent.... are people who already served more time than most people with similar offenses (some of whom served no time, and were granted bail thanks to Kamala fundraising). Anything extra is political imprisonment. And that's just the violent ones. The rest were basically nan and pop-pop taking selfies after being invited in. Spare me the pearl clutching.
How are the current appointees doing? How is the health of US citizens? RFK has litigated against these seed oil sales men for decades....you probably think he's "anti vax." (hint: he's not). Gabbard is worse than Haines? We know this? And yes, Lloyd Austin has done such a fine job....how many audits has the pentagon failed? Did you know they spent 16 million on ribeyes in September, and 6 million on lobster tails?
I know your arguments better than you know them yourself; I'd suggest holding off on saying someone is drinking kool aid.....maybe check in on ground.news from time to time to check your blind spots.
A major recession.
How could you even consider investing in an instrument that pays out based on an inflation number put out by the issue?
that same issue has changed the way they measure inflation almost every time they issue a new inflation report.
Insanity!
Exactly...as I said below....government math to protect you from government math. As if incentives only matter in the private sector.
I was prepared to disagree with you, but then I remembered that for the next four years those numbers are going to be coming from an administration that is vested in proving it has met its campaign promises of wiping out inflation.
I can get behind that thinking as far as the head of the new administration but the apperatchnik in place is bigger than we can believe.
I for one support the chainsaw that has started the trimming…
Hey, listen up! 30-Year TIPS are only risk-free if you wait 30 years for them to mature. If you try to cash them in before that, there’s a chance the principal value might go down (like if the long interest rate goes up). I think there’s a good chance long-term interest rates will go up as the US debt continues to grow faster than it's means. The only way to make TIPS risk-free is to have a ladder of TIPS that matures in times and amounts designed to match cash needs.
There are several TIPS ladder-building tools out there. Here are a couple of useful ones:
https://eyebonds.info/downloads/index.html
https://www.tipsladder.com
TIPS yields are stated in real terms. There are 52 TIPS of varying maturity currenrtly available. As of today, the last data in each row below shows the Asked Yield to Maturity in real terms. So, for example the TIPS maturing 2/15/204 us currently yeilding 2.35% real. If you bought and held it to maturity its principal and interest payments over time would yield 2.35% above infation (whatever inflation turns out to be). Note that TIPS are currently not available at maturities ranging between 1/15/2035 and 2/15/2040. The 1/15/2035 TIPS just closed at auction yesterday so it is not shown in the table below but it will be available in secondary markets in the next few days. If your building a ladder you have to either load up on 1/15/2035 TIPS or 2/15/2040 TIPS to cover the gap between those dates. Treasury is currently issuing new 10 year TIPS every 1/15 and 7/15 so over time the gap will be filled in with new issues.
Description Ask Yield to Maturity
UNITED STATES TREAS NTS SER X-2025 0.12500% 04/15/2025 0.657
UNITED STATES TREAS NTS SER D-2025 0.37500% 07/15/2025 0.417
UNITED STATES TREAS NTS SER AE-2025 0.12500% 10/15/2025 0.945
UNITED STATES TREASURY 2.00000% 01/15/2026 1.563
UNITED STATES TREAS NTS 0.62500% 01/15/2026 TIPS 1.561
UNITED STATES TREAS NTS SER X-2026 0.12500% 04/15/2026 1.635
UNITED STATES TREAS NTS 0.12500% 07/15/2026 TIPS 1.301
UNITED STATES TREAS NTS SER AE-2026 0.12500% 10/15/2026 1.388
UNITED STATES TREAS BDS TIPS 2.37500% 01/15/2027 1.611
UNITED STATES TREAS NTS TIPS 0.37500% 01/15/2027 1.623
UNITED STATES TREAS NTS SER X-2027 0.12500% 04/15/2027 1.715
UNITED STATES TREAS NTS SER D-2027 0.37500% 07/15/2027 1.539
UNITED STATES TREAS NTS SER AE-2027 1.62500% 10/15/2027 1.599
UNITED STATES TREASURY 1.75000% 01/15/2028 1.767
UNITED STATES TREAS NTS SER A-2028 0.50000% 01/15/2028 1.769
UNITED STATES TREAS BDS 3.62500% 04/15/2028 1.819
UNITED STATES TREAS NTS SER X-2028 1.25000% 04/15/2028 1.847
UNITED STATES TREAS NTS SER D-2028 0.75000% 07/15/2028 1.706
UNITED STATES TREAS NTS SER AE-2028 2.37500% 10/15/2028 1.757
UNITED STATES TREAS BDS 2.50000% 01/15/2029 TIPS 1.875
UNITED STATES TREAS NTS SER A-2029 0.87500% 01/15/2029 1.88
UNITED STATES TREAS BDS 3.87500% 04/15/2029 1.943
UNITED STATES TREAS NTS SER X-2029 2.12500% 04/15/2029 1.947
UNITED STATES TREAS NTS SER D-2029 0.25000% 07/15/2029 1.826
UNITED STATES TREAS NTS SER AE-2029 1.62500% 10/15/2029 1.876
UNITED STATES TREAS NTS SER A-2030 0.12500% 01/15/2030 1.94
UNITED STATES TREAS NTS SER D-2030 0.12500% 07/15/2030 1.897
UNITED STATES TREAS NTS SER A-2031 0.12500% 01/15/2031 1.995
UNITED STATES TREAS NTS SER D-2031 0.12500% 07/15/2031 1.968
UNITED STATES TREAS NTS SER A-2032 0.12500% 01/15/2032 2.057
UNITED STATES TREASURY 3.37500% 04/15/2032 2.051
UNITED STATES TREAS NTS SER D-2032 0.62500% 07/15/2032 2.037
UNITED STATES TREAS NTS SER A-2033 1.12500% 01/15/2033 2.121
UNITED STATES TREAS NTS SER D-2033 1.37500% 07/15/2033 2.109
UNITED STATES TREAS NTS SER A-2034 1.75000% 01/15/2034 2.176
UNITED STATES TREAS NTS SER D-2034 1.87500% 07/15/2034 2.156
UNITED STATES TREAS BDS 2.12500% 02/15/2040 2.325
UNITED STATES TREAS BDS 2.12500% 02/15/2041 2.306
UNITED STATES TREAS BDS 0.75000% 02/15/2042 TIPS 2.354
UNITED STATES TREAS BDS 0.62500% 02/15/2043 2.393
UNITED STATES TREAS BDS 1.37500% 02/15/2044 2.41
UNITED STATES TREAS BDS 0.75000% 02/15/2045 2.433
UNITED STATES TREAS BDS 1.00000% 02/15/2046 TIPS 2.462
UNITED STATES TREAS BDS TIPS 0.87500% 02/15/2047 2.462
UNITED STATES TREAS BONDS 1.00000% 02/15/2048 2.461
UNITED STATES TREAS BDS SER TIPS 1.00000% 02/15/2049 2.469
UNITED STATES TREAS BDS SER TIPS 0.25000% 02/15/2050 2.459
UNITED STATES TREAS BDS SER TIPS 0.12500% 02/15/2051 2.437
UNITED STATES TREAS BDS SER TIPS 0.12500% 02/15/2052 2.422
UNITED STATES TREAS BDS SER TIPS 1.50000% 02/15/2053 2.467
UNITED STATES TREAS BDS 2.12500% 02/15/2054 SER TIP 2.468
Makes sense. The principal value adjusts with monthly change in CPI. Good explanation here: https://www.pimco.com/us/en/resources/education/understanding-treasury-inflation-protected-securities. So, looking at TIPS ( https://treasurydirect.gov/marketable-securities/tips/ ) one would have to build a ladder (5,10 and/or 30 yrs). Would you have a link or similar to show how to build such a ladder, and what % yields would be expected?
For everything TIPS go to tipswatch.com
The interest earned is still subjected to Federal tax (no state ).
It looks like Trump wanted to control the Fed too.
1- Can he somehow interfere with inflation rate reporting ? thus affecting the TIPS rate ?
2- What do you think about Gold ?
TIPS: government math to protect you from government math. I don't waste one second trying to prognosticate. I use a time segmented (bucket) plan of diversified pies of ETFs. Sleep like a puppy.
Trump went to business school. And he's big into debt. Surely he knows that the easiest way to reduce a debt is massive inflation. If the U.S. owes 37 Trillion dollars, and he can inflate the currency by a factor of 10, the effective debt drops to $3.7 Trillion. So tariffs and a trade war is his way of reducing the debt! What could go wrong?
Another rant from an uber liberal, elite, northeastern academic. Ideology vs. ideology. I haven’t seen any commentary about what others might consider the disastrous and unethical behavior and policies of his predecessor. He was president for 4 years and we survived. Let’s all calm down. 2.5% real rate of return for 30 years may be ok if you are in your 70’s but might not be optimal for everybody. If you don’t hold those for 30 years, you might get a haircut. And it may be sooner rather than later based on what the bond market is saying.
The "disastrous" economy of strong growth in real GDP, wages, employment, stock market returns and household net worth? Or are you just writing about the price of a dozen eggs?
No. I was actually thinking of the hundreds of thousands of children that are missing as they tried to cross the US-Mexican border and are presumed to be exploited; the withdrawal from Afghanistan that resulted in the loss of life of 13 US service members that at the same time marginalized the loss of life and lifelong trauma of those that sacrificed for that country’s freedom and relegated that country back to a theocracy that denies women their basic rights; and ignoring the buildup of over 100,000 Russian troops for over a year at the Ukrainian border.
None of that is relevant to the rational economic discussion Kotlikoff was having. If your complaint is that he is an “elite”, you might ask yourself whether a member of an elite — in this case a highly published economist— might know more than you do.
Great article by John Mauldin Thoughts from the Frontline this morning