The Real Message in Ukraine's Drone Strike on Russian Airbases

Most of Russia that counts, including its nuclear plants, electric power plants and grid, and the Kremlin, itself, are now in range.

In reporting what is surely a Ukrainian drone attack, and likely the first use of Ukrainian developed long-range drones, on two Russian airbases yesterday, CNN wrote:

Russian state media reported that three people were killed and six injured on Monday when a fuel truck exploded in a strike at an airfield near the city of Ryazan, which lies around 120 miles (200 kilometers) southeast of Moscow.

This is the same distance from Moscow as is the Kalinin nuclear plant. Back in October, I wrote that Ukraine potentially had its own nuclear weapons, i.e., the ability to blow up Russian nuclear plants. Yesterday attack makes this conjecture definitive. Ukraine just demonstrated its capacity to blow up anything in Western Russia, including Moscow. Hence, Ukraine is now in a position to announce publicly that any direct or indirect use of any weapons of mass destruction will lead to an immediate attack on Russia’s nuclear plants.

To quote my prior substack newsletter,

There are the 38 nuclear power plants located primarily in Western Russia. A couple are very close to Moscow and St. Petersburg. The largest 10 plants have 35 reactors. The Kalinin plant, with its four reactors, is 200 km from Moscow. The Leningrad nuclear plant is 103 km from St. Petersburg. The Rostow plant, with three reactors, has 15 cities within 99 km. Blowing these plants up or wiping out their cooling systems can spread ration for kilometers. But starting a fire of spent fuel rods may represent the greatest danger. Fukushima’s disaster almost involved a fuel rod fire that would have left Toyko uninhabitable.

The distance from Fukushima to Toyko is 239 kilometers. To deter Moscow’s use of internationally outlawed weapons, President Zelensky should draw very clear red lines. This can come in the form of publicly ordering his military to immediately attack Russian nuclear plants, without further orders from central command, if Russia resorts to nuclear, chemical, or biological warfare — of any magnitude under any circumstance. This includes attacking or falsifying an attack on Ukrainian nuclear plants.

Zelensky can also make clear that further attacks on Ukraine’s electric power stations and its electric grid will lead to commensurate attacks on Russia’s power stations and grid. This step needs to be carefully considered. The Russian people are not at fault for this war and victimizing them for Putin’s atrocities could backfire. Then, again, turning off the lights for a short period in a small town located near Moscow may send a sufficient warning to Putin that the price he faces for attempting to freeze Ukrainians to death could be very high.

Indeed, each act of barbarity committed by Putin could lead to an in-kind, if smaller scale response by Ukraine with Zelensky public proclaiming,

Attack X was in response to attack Y. Stop attacking Y and we will stop attacking X. Furthermore, your next Y attack will mean an X attack on a Z target. Hence, if you again plan to engage in a Y attack, please evacuate all civilians in all Z target areas in advance of your attack.

In the Middle Ages, disputes were often settled by jousting. These “tournaments” limited combat to a very narrow sphere — between just two people. Ukraine is now in a position to restrict Putin to fighting a conventional war, not targeting hospitals, schools, and infrastructure. Zelensky should exercise his new power by laying out the price Putin will pay for each further specific attack against humanity. And he should make clear to the Russian people and the world that it is Putin, not Ukraine, that is responsible for any loss of property, lives, or limbs in Russia.