Ukraine was never America's to lose, and your ridiculous typification of a Putin ready to trigger nuclear meltdowns underlines the utter silliness of this analysis. Go and do some actual real research on Put-on, Ukraine and Russia's security interests. Then maybe, you will be able to overcome your biases to accept that Ukraine os the Russian equivalent of Canada or Mexico. The US should GTFO before it starts a world war through its aggression.
Putin is telling us he's ready to pull the trigger. I take him at his word. He does everything else he says he is going to do under the conditions he outlines.
Roger, How much time have you spent in Russia in the last decade? I bet not a day. I bet you don't know any of the players, some now arrested. I've been working in Russia for over six years and do know many prominent Russians.
NATO has never been a threat to Russia. The potential for Russia to retake Eastern Europe has always been the threat. So the parallel you are drawing doesn't hold in my view. But we don't have to agree. You have a reasoned position. But we are making different assumptions. best, Larry
“I've been working in Russia for over six years and do know many prominent Russians.”
Great Larry; how many of them told you NATO has never been a threat to Russia? Biden’s CIA director, William J. Burns, spent some time in Russia, too. Burns has been warning about the provocative effect of NATO expansion on Russia since 1995. That’s when Burns, working in the U.S. Embassy in Moscow, reported to Washington that “hostility to early NATO expansion is almost universally felt across the domestic political spectrum here.” Over 10 years later, in 2008, Burns wrote in a memo to then-Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice:
“Ukrainian entry into NATO is the brightest of all redlines
for the Russian elite (not just Putin). In more than two and
a half years of conversations with key Russian players . . .
I have yet to find anyone who views Ukraine in NATO as
anything other than a direct challenge to Russian interests.”
Your opinion that, “NATO has never been a threat to Russia” is valid Larry, but it’s hardly universal, and it’s not one most Russians necessarily share.
Burns was right in 1995 when Yeltsin seemed in charge. At that time, the best move would have been to bring Russia into NATO. Once Putin took over and we discovered we were dealing with a megalomaniac, the only thing that made sense was what we did -- maximally expand NATO. Adding Sweden and Finland is maintaining this policy of encircling and blocking Hitler reincarnated.
But regardless of whether you are happy with how we got to where we're situated, it's where we're at. So, the question I'm posing is the optimal policy to implement right now. I'm not saying I have had more contact with high-level Russians or have more knowledge than Burns. Of course not. What I'm saying is I know a lot more about this issue and the players than it might seem and I don't make policy proposals of this magnitude lightly. If Burns is still around, he might well agree with this plan because it gives both sides a way to declare victory and end the carnage. best, Larry
“Burns was right in 1995 when Yeltsin seemed in charge.”
So why are you dismissing what he said in 2005 when Putin was in charge:
‘Ukrainian entry into NATO is the brightest of all redlines for the Russian elite (NOT. JUST. PUTIN. [emphasis added]). In more than two and a half years of conversations with key Russian players, from knuckle-draggers in the dark recesses of the Kremlin to Putin’s sharpest liberal critics, I have yet to find anyone who views Ukraine in NATO as anything other than a direct challenge to Russian interests.”
How is it you got it right and a diplomat/CIA employee got it wrong 10 years after he got it right? What justifies such cherry-picking on your part?
“Once Putin took over and we discovered we were dealing with a megalomaniac, the only thing that made sense was what we did -- maximally expand NATO”
How could crossing Russia’s “brightest of redlines” (promising Ukraine eventual accession to NATO in 2008) be anything other than reckless?
Larry, Larry, Larry - please stick to helping people with Social Security! Your political comments are not what we signed up for. As well, they are off base and offensive. Donald Trump's "Russian Collusion" was a lie concocted by the HRC campaign and pushed by corrupt officials in the White House, CIA, and FBI. It was an attack on American "democracy" and our electoral process. The benefactor of that hoax, Mr. Biden, has done immense harm to this nation and its future. That is an iceberg we are sailing into and we desperately need a new captain!
Hi Robert, Recall, I ran against Trump and Clinton for President in 2016. Biden is largely Clinton in drag. That said, I agree strongly with many/most of Biden's domestic policies as well as his position on climate change. Re climate change, we should stop micro managing it and switch to a carbon tax. Will write on this soon. I think the Russians have something over Trump and it will come out eventually. Why else would he have kissed Putin's feet non stop for four years. I think we need, at this point, to understand the man is and has forever been sick and a real danger to the country. That doesn't make Biden terrific. My column was a major attack on his Ukraine policy! But I have a lot more to discuss than Social Security -- particularly if I decided to run again when I'm of age. Please keep the feedback coming. The more negative the better. It's more educational.
Larry, thanks very much for responding. However Trump was no friend of Putin's. He maintained a friendly public face in order to keep lines of communication open. If you need to negotiate with someone you won't get far by vilifying them. The record bears that out. In Trump's first three years he sanctioned 46 Russian entities and 222 of Vlad's closest buddies. He condemned Putin's actions in the Ukraine and Crimea, as well as in Syria and Venezuela. He also provided funds and other military assistance to the Ukrainians. Here's a summation of his dealings with Russia from that radical right-wing Brookings Institution:
He immediately publicly ridiculed NATO. Nothing wrong pushing for more money from our partners, but not in the manner he did so. He publicly undermined our security services claiming he believed Putin over them. He opposed sanctions on Russia. He never publicly criticized Putin despite his being a clear murderer. And the list goes on. What do you like about Trump? Re Biden, I agree, Biden should have set dark red lines from the get go. It's his war to lose. That's clear from what I wrote. best and let's keep discussing, Larry
Zelensky is a grifter. Ukraine has been a money laundering and sex and arms trafficking operation since the fall of the Soviet Union. It has only got worse when the Uniparty - Biden, Obama, Romney, Pelosi, Schiff, Kerry - got involved.
“He immediately publicly ridiculed NATO. . .He publicly undermined our security services claiming he believed Putin over them. He opposed sanctions on Russia. He never publicly criticized Putin.”
All true. Now, can you list the many things Trump didn’t do right?
Trump was correct. NATO deserves the ridicule. The US intelligence services weren’t believable and still aren’t, he opposes sanctions for obvious and not so obvious reasons, and why should he publicly criticize Putin? He was busy negotiating and creating better foreign policy. Trump is ousted from office and Biden and his crew immediately fuck up everything while stuffing their pockets full of cash. They did the same thing under Obama - endless wars, corruption, tens of trillions of new debt, secret alliances with Iran and other anti-American regimes - China obviously owns Biden. How many billions have they paid him and his family so far??
No, it's a recommendation that lets Putin and Zelensky declare victory. It's the only path that permits that outcome and the only way to prevent nuclear war.
Thanks for your response - not sure I deserve one! ;-)
I feel like this whole debacle stems from a fundamental misunderstanding of the extent of US power...both globally and in the region.
Putin was very clear about his red lines over the years, and the Western powers led by the US ignored them completely. This, after agreements were made in Kyiv back in 2014. Putin's red lines were easy to understand using just a shred of empathy: would the US allow our geo-political adversaries to camp out on (colonize?) our doorstep? Hell no.
The US is not agreement-capable - we make deals and break deals at a whim - which is the fault of both political parties and it is diminishing our standing in the world by the day.
This is not even to mention the fact that Ukraine is unstable and corrupt by any measure. The country has its own long-standing governance problems of east vs west. Reputable mainstream US news outlets were reporting on the rise of the neo-Nazi factions and their mal-treatment of Russians within Ukraine for years between 2014 & 2022. Somehow, the same Western media spun on a dime to start calling those same Nazi guys heroes...?!?
The correct path was to forget all about NATO membership and push for Ukraine's EU membership...but at a negotiated pace. It needed to be negotiated carefully because Ukraine already had a free trade deal with Russia. Instead, the EU pushed for fast-track membership which would open up a gargantuan tariff-free black market pipeline from the EU through Ukraine into Russia. Putin warned about the problem, was ignored, and had to become evil Putin to solve that problem for himself.
Is Putin a great guy whom we should admire? No. But...he is playing his game of chess to pursue his own interests...and he is playing it pretty well compared to our team. My less snarky response to your proposal is that pushing our team to bang the table harder and up-end the pieces won't result in a win for us.
Let’s talk like a grownup. What do you want to say specifically? You don’t need to agree with me. But I can’t respond if I don’t know what you are thinking. Best, Larry
Larry, you're a brilliant economist and as such you should stay clear of politics. You have just lowered yourself to the senseless and uninformed partisan left! Typical academic!
Putin doesn't want the Eastern portion. He wants it all. Putin is Hitler in drag. You need to pick sides -- either with our country or with a megalomaniac. best, Larry
Let it go back to Russia where it’s been for ever. Ukraine had the chance to be neutral but it’s leaders chose differently and got themselves in this mess even putting literal NAZIs in charge of the AZOV battalion.
Ukraine is an independent country and has a right to choose its own destiny. Russia doesn't own Ukraine. They have historic ties. Ukraine could better claim to own Russia than the opposite. And they aren't innocent and they perhaps could have played things differently. But this is naked aggression and genocide by Russia. Trust you can see this.
Russia is an independent county as well, and it has the right to determine if it's neighbors are stockpiling weapons of mass destruction targeted at their homeland.
Do you think the United States would allow Mexico to stockpile Russian nuclear missiles pointed at the USA after allowing a Russian coup of the fairly elected Mexican govt (as the US did in Ukraine in 2014).
The USA would have invaded Mexico in a hot second if the roles were reversed. Would Joe Biden then be Hitler in Drag?
Put down the crack pipe Larry and quit regurgitating neocon talking points.
You dont have a clue about geopolitics. Stick with what you know
Well parts of Ukraine voted for independence - the eastern part. If you respect democracy then you’ll have to respect the will of the people. The eastern part of Ukraine is filled with Russian Ukrainians who have been under attack by the Ukrainian government led by the NAZI AZOV battalion and the CIA, UK, Canada, France and other countries.
Ukraine is one of the most corrupt counties in the world if not the most corrupt countries.
Please clarify what Trump did or did not do that makes you think he is Putin’s lapdog? This war started due to weakness on the Biden admin not Trump! Where is the UN or NATO or WEP, or pick a letter.
Help me understand why you think Trump is a traitor and Biden isn't. Gas prices? Selling oil to China? Inflation? Taxes? Market value? America first? Trump is a capitalist. Biden is a hapless politician (at best)
wake up - january 6th was fake and a preplanned trap by evil people - where was the national guard? - where were the capital police? answer that and you'll have a clue. Until then, stick to economics
Stick to economics. Ukraine is irrelevant, or rather no more “strategic” than Moldova and Belarus, which we allow Russia to dominate or neuter, despite both bordering NATO, and somehow this isn’t an existential threat.
Sure I would love to see the Ukrainians fight the Russians to a standstill and retake Kherson and that whole bank of the River, but I am not willing to risk my children’s lives to make that happen. If the EU wants to take on Russia, have it.
Here is an alternative history. If the Trump family got rich off Ukraine and Ukraine was participating/cooperating in an impeachment of Joe Biden, would Ukraine be the world’s darling right now?
Larry, as much as I respect your past work in the field of Social Security, you should stick with it.
This articl of yours is a socialists-Democrat propaganda, and garbage based on no factual information why Putin went in. I am not going into it now, but approach it from your ethnic ancestry. You should be ashamed protecting nazi- ukranians. Here is why. (I wrote this article for a Jewish demo publication back in March of this year),
March, 2022
The ukrainians is the only European people who had NEVER admitted, repented or apologized for killing the Jews.
The most vicious guards of Auschwitz were the ukrainians.
They also eagerly rounded up, transported and killed innocents in Babin Yar.
All of these facts are widely documented by the Yad Vashem Holocaust museum, in Nuremberg trials papers, Auschwitz memorial museum, and many other Holocaust museums in the US and Europe.
Given a chance, they would do it today again.
Forget about Israel.
Never in their miserable history they expressed support for tiny Israel.
In all their votes through their voting history at UN did they ever support Israel?
Meanwhile, that clown they call president had guts to blame Israel for not doing much in their support.
Or another fact comes to mind. Remember the gas chambers of the concentration camps the germans used so efficiently. They field-tried them in ukraine first when they used trucks with exhaust pipes rigged inside the box. Guess who herded the poor victims inside, and washed the trucks after for the next load of innocents...
What was the Jewish life worth through all ukranian miserable history?
Are ukranians going to give back our land? our personal belongings? How many of them are living in stolen homes? How many of them having stolen property in their homes? What was a Jewish life worth?
Are they going to pay for that too? Nope? They are not forgiven, at least not by me.
Ukrainian accession to NATO as it’s at war while directly threatening the Russian leadership would be extremely dangerously. The Russians could as easily destroy Washington D.C., New York, Kiev, London, and Berlin as the US could vaporize Russian cities, so what’s the point of making belligerent threats? And why would the Russians have the slightest interest in negotiating a “lease” of Crimea after annexing it years ago following broad approval by referenda of the people living there? Short of nuclear war, there is no credible threat the US has to force such negotiations.
The EU has damaged its economies with its own sanctions, NATO has lost credibility, the US has lost its proxy war in Ukraine, and Ukraine has lost the Donbass. That’s reality, and threatening or even using nuclear weapons is not going to improve it.
Letting the Russians turn Ukraine into a wasteland or occupy it is not tolerable to the US now and too dangerous given Trump's support for Putin. The status quo isn't working. If you don't like my proposal, what's yours? bests, Larry
Turning the US proxy war against Russia into a direct nuclear one is considerably less tolerable for all of mankind. The status quo works better for it than inviting Armageddon ever will.
I think a much better alternative is to accept reality - on the heels of Iraq and Afghanistan, the US lost AGAIN - learn the lessons the defeats offer, and sue for peace.
It’s by no means certain that Russia will occupy Ukraine for long or turn it into a wasteland, but if it does, that’s too bad if that’s not tolerable to the US now. In war, the losing side doesn’t get to dictate terms; that’s what losing means.
Accepting and learning from the many American mistakes is still a lot better than vaporizing Eurasia and North America because Trump has a thing for Putin.
Don’t get melodramatic Larry. The US lost to Afghanistan and left humiliated and defeated, but there was no formal surrender. The US lost in Ukraine, but it won’t have to surrender there either; it just has to leave.
And if the US is ever forced to surrender, I won’t be the one dictating terms.
Biden has already lost the mid terms and has nothing to do with Ukraine. It has every thing to do with his lack of economic policies that put the poor and middle class above short term corp profits.
So the urgency in Ukraine should be around preserving NATO, in my view. I am 100% certain the Pentagon has evaluated solutions similar to Prof Kotlikoff's. My guess is that they have rejected it because of how much it increases the chances of a nuclear war..
Putin, does not appear to know 'exactly' what he is doing as he did not anticipate this level of economic sanctions or of resistance from the Ukrainians. That makes him more desperate and less likely to act rationally...
"Tom," 100 percent certain is very certain. I think he needs a way to declare victory and keep what he has. So does Zelensky. This path provides victory for both. best, Larry
PS, Try your own name. Piketty is not your hero, trust me.
You are right 100% is far too certain. I plead guilty of Hyperbole..
Piketty is not my only economics hero.
I am a huge fan of Luigi Zingales and Alan Card. They are on opposite ends of the ideological spectrum but both bring relevant perspectives on economics in terms of Regulatory Capture and other forms of capture and Use of Empirical Evidence over theory when it comes to wages...
But hey, i admit it, I am an amateur in economics. I have an open mind and have no reason to shut it.
I share your wariness and your support for Ukraine, but I think Ukraine as an uninhabitable wasteland might be at best an extreme fallback position for Putin. IMO his No. 1 preference would be for Ukraine as another Belarus -- something he almost had with Yanukovych.
That would be really self destructive to the US and moreover once again break promises by the US to not expand NATO. Ukraine is so corrupt they have no place inside NATO or the EU.
You're saying that Trump would have told Russia it would be at war were it to invade Ukraine. That's what I'm proposing Biden announce to Russia if they don't cease fire.
No. Russia wouldn’t have dared to invade because Trump was unpredictable. Biden is very predictable. He even went on TV to say he wasn’t going to do anything to stop the invasion. Then a ‘we must defend Ukraine’ Astro turf campaign was launched to gun up public support to spend billions on a siphon of corruption - which is Ukraine and endless war.
The Uni-party is all about endless wars and vast corruption. Biden is part of the establishment UNI-party. You can always count on him to spend obscene sums of money and get the US in to endless wars.
At the same time China is once again Russia’s backer and is only too happy to see the West and especially the US harm itself.
Trump didn’t represent a war, Trump represented nuclear annihilation.
Ukraine was never America's to lose, and your ridiculous typification of a Putin ready to trigger nuclear meltdowns underlines the utter silliness of this analysis. Go and do some actual real research on Put-on, Ukraine and Russia's security interests. Then maybe, you will be able to overcome your biases to accept that Ukraine os the Russian equivalent of Canada or Mexico. The US should GTFO before it starts a world war through its aggression.
Putin is telling us he's ready to pull the trigger. I take him at his word. He does everything else he says he is going to do under the conditions he outlines.
Roger, How much time have you spent in Russia in the last decade? I bet not a day. I bet you don't know any of the players, some now arrested. I've been working in Russia for over six years and do know many prominent Russians.
NATO has never been a threat to Russia. The potential for Russia to retake Eastern Europe has always been the threat. So the parallel you are drawing doesn't hold in my view. But we don't have to agree. You have a reasoned position. But we are making different assumptions. best, Larry
“I've been working in Russia for over six years and do know many prominent Russians.”
Great Larry; how many of them told you NATO has never been a threat to Russia? Biden’s CIA director, William J. Burns, spent some time in Russia, too. Burns has been warning about the provocative effect of NATO expansion on Russia since 1995. That’s when Burns, working in the U.S. Embassy in Moscow, reported to Washington that “hostility to early NATO expansion is almost universally felt across the domestic political spectrum here.” Over 10 years later, in 2008, Burns wrote in a memo to then-Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice:
“Ukrainian entry into NATO is the brightest of all redlines
for the Russian elite (not just Putin). In more than two and
a half years of conversations with key Russian players . . .
I have yet to find anyone who views Ukraine in NATO as
anything other than a direct challenge to Russian interests.”
Your opinion that, “NATO has never been a threat to Russia” is valid Larry, but it’s hardly universal, and it’s not one most Russians necessarily share.
https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CREC-2022-02-10/html/CREC-2022-02-10-pt1-PgS632-2.htm
Burns was right in 1995 when Yeltsin seemed in charge. At that time, the best move would have been to bring Russia into NATO. Once Putin took over and we discovered we were dealing with a megalomaniac, the only thing that made sense was what we did -- maximally expand NATO. Adding Sweden and Finland is maintaining this policy of encircling and blocking Hitler reincarnated.
But regardless of whether you are happy with how we got to where we're situated, it's where we're at. So, the question I'm posing is the optimal policy to implement right now. I'm not saying I have had more contact with high-level Russians or have more knowledge than Burns. Of course not. What I'm saying is I know a lot more about this issue and the players than it might seem and I don't make policy proposals of this magnitude lightly. If Burns is still around, he might well agree with this plan because it gives both sides a way to declare victory and end the carnage. best, Larry
“Burns was right in 1995 when Yeltsin seemed in charge.”
So why are you dismissing what he said in 2005 when Putin was in charge:
‘Ukrainian entry into NATO is the brightest of all redlines for the Russian elite (NOT. JUST. PUTIN. [emphasis added]). In more than two and a half years of conversations with key Russian players, from knuckle-draggers in the dark recesses of the Kremlin to Putin’s sharpest liberal critics, I have yet to find anyone who views Ukraine in NATO as anything other than a direct challenge to Russian interests.”
How is it you got it right and a diplomat/CIA employee got it wrong 10 years after he got it right? What justifies such cherry-picking on your part?
“Once Putin took over and we discovered we were dealing with a megalomaniac, the only thing that made sense was what we did -- maximally expand NATO”
How could crossing Russia’s “brightest of redlines” (promising Ukraine eventual accession to NATO in 2008) be anything other than reckless?
Larry, Larry, Larry - please stick to helping people with Social Security! Your political comments are not what we signed up for. As well, they are off base and offensive. Donald Trump's "Russian Collusion" was a lie concocted by the HRC campaign and pushed by corrupt officials in the White House, CIA, and FBI. It was an attack on American "democracy" and our electoral process. The benefactor of that hoax, Mr. Biden, has done immense harm to this nation and its future. That is an iceberg we are sailing into and we desperately need a new captain!
Hi Robert, Recall, I ran against Trump and Clinton for President in 2016. Biden is largely Clinton in drag. That said, I agree strongly with many/most of Biden's domestic policies as well as his position on climate change. Re climate change, we should stop micro managing it and switch to a carbon tax. Will write on this soon. I think the Russians have something over Trump and it will come out eventually. Why else would he have kissed Putin's feet non stop for four years. I think we need, at this point, to understand the man is and has forever been sick and a real danger to the country. That doesn't make Biden terrific. My column was a major attack on his Ukraine policy! But I have a lot more to discuss than Social Security -- particularly if I decided to run again when I'm of age. Please keep the feedback coming. The more negative the better. It's more educational.
best, Larry
Larry, thanks very much for responding. However Trump was no friend of Putin's. He maintained a friendly public face in order to keep lines of communication open. If you need to negotiate with someone you won't get far by vilifying them. The record bears that out. In Trump's first three years he sanctioned 46 Russian entities and 222 of Vlad's closest buddies. He condemned Putin's actions in the Ukraine and Crimea, as well as in Syria and Venezuela. He also provided funds and other military assistance to the Ukrainians. Here's a summation of his dealings with Russia from that radical right-wing Brookings Institution:
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2018/09/25/on-the-record-the-u-s-administrations-actions-on-russia/
You won't see any boot licking! Imagine what he could have accomplished if he had the support of the media and the Washington establishment!
Best regards, Rob Williams
The carbon tax is and will be micro managing the economy.. Your comment does not make sense.
He immediately publicly ridiculed NATO. Nothing wrong pushing for more money from our partners, but not in the manner he did so. He publicly undermined our security services claiming he believed Putin over them. He opposed sanctions on Russia. He never publicly criticized Putin despite his being a clear murderer. And the list goes on. What do you like about Trump? Re Biden, I agree, Biden should have set dark red lines from the get go. It's his war to lose. That's clear from what I wrote. best and let's keep discussing, Larry
Zelensky is a grifter. Ukraine has been a money laundering and sex and arms trafficking operation since the fall of the Soviet Union. It has only got worse when the Uniparty - Biden, Obama, Romney, Pelosi, Schiff, Kerry - got involved.
“He immediately publicly ridiculed NATO. . .He publicly undermined our security services claiming he believed Putin over them. He opposed sanctions on Russia. He never publicly criticized Putin.”
All true. Now, can you list the many things Trump didn’t do right?
Trump was correct. NATO deserves the ridicule. The US intelligence services weren’t believable and still aren’t, he opposes sanctions for obvious and not so obvious reasons, and why should he publicly criticize Putin? He was busy negotiating and creating better foreign policy. Trump is ousted from office and Biden and his crew immediately fuck up everything while stuffing their pockets full of cash. They did the same thing under Obama - endless wars, corruption, tens of trillions of new debt, secret alliances with Iran and other anti-American regimes - China obviously owns Biden. How many billions have they paid him and his family so far??
This is an unhinged recommendation to start nuclear war?
...I LIKE it!
No, it's a recommendation that lets Putin and Zelensky declare victory. It's the only path that permits that outcome and the only way to prevent nuclear war.
Larry,
Thanks for your response - not sure I deserve one! ;-)
I feel like this whole debacle stems from a fundamental misunderstanding of the extent of US power...both globally and in the region.
Putin was very clear about his red lines over the years, and the Western powers led by the US ignored them completely. This, after agreements were made in Kyiv back in 2014. Putin's red lines were easy to understand using just a shred of empathy: would the US allow our geo-political adversaries to camp out on (colonize?) our doorstep? Hell no.
The US is not agreement-capable - we make deals and break deals at a whim - which is the fault of both political parties and it is diminishing our standing in the world by the day.
This is not even to mention the fact that Ukraine is unstable and corrupt by any measure. The country has its own long-standing governance problems of east vs west. Reputable mainstream US news outlets were reporting on the rise of the neo-Nazi factions and their mal-treatment of Russians within Ukraine for years between 2014 & 2022. Somehow, the same Western media spun on a dime to start calling those same Nazi guys heroes...?!?
The correct path was to forget all about NATO membership and push for Ukraine's EU membership...but at a negotiated pace. It needed to be negotiated carefully because Ukraine already had a free trade deal with Russia. Instead, the EU pushed for fast-track membership which would open up a gargantuan tariff-free black market pipeline from the EU through Ukraine into Russia. Putin warned about the problem, was ignored, and had to become evil Putin to solve that problem for himself.
Is Putin a great guy whom we should admire? No. But...he is playing his game of chess to pursue his own interests...and he is playing it pretty well compared to our team. My less snarky response to your proposal is that pushing our team to bang the table harder and up-end the pieces won't result in a win for us.
You're a fucking idiot my dude
Let’s talk like a grownup. What do you want to say specifically? You don’t need to agree with me. But I can’t respond if I don’t know what you are thinking. Best, Larry
Larry, you're a brilliant economist and as such you should stay clear of politics. You have just lowered yourself to the senseless and uninformed partisan left! Typical academic!
Zelensky needs to surrender. Half the country is Russian Ukrainian - the eastern portion. If they want independence that’s fine.
Putin doesn't want the Eastern portion. He wants it all. Putin is Hitler in drag. You need to pick sides -- either with our country or with a megalomaniac. best, Larry
You just said he doesn't want Ukraine because he wants to make it a nuclear wasteland. You're a warmongering lackwit. Kill yourself.
Let it go back to Russia where it’s been for ever. Ukraine had the chance to be neutral but it’s leaders chose differently and got themselves in this mess even putting literal NAZIs in charge of the AZOV battalion.
Ukraine is an independent country and has a right to choose its own destiny. Russia doesn't own Ukraine. They have historic ties. Ukraine could better claim to own Russia than the opposite. And they aren't innocent and they perhaps could have played things differently. But this is naked aggression and genocide by Russia. Trust you can see this.
Russia is an independent county as well, and it has the right to determine if it's neighbors are stockpiling weapons of mass destruction targeted at their homeland.
Do you think the United States would allow Mexico to stockpile Russian nuclear missiles pointed at the USA after allowing a Russian coup of the fairly elected Mexican govt (as the US did in Ukraine in 2014).
The USA would have invaded Mexico in a hot second if the roles were reversed. Would Joe Biden then be Hitler in Drag?
Put down the crack pipe Larry and quit regurgitating neocon talking points.
You dont have a clue about geopolitics. Stick with what you know
Well parts of Ukraine voted for independence - the eastern part. If you respect democracy then you’ll have to respect the will of the people. The eastern part of Ukraine is filled with Russian Ukrainians who have been under attack by the Ukrainian government led by the NAZI AZOV battalion and the CIA, UK, Canada, France and other countries.
Ukraine is one of the most corrupt counties in the world if not the most corrupt countries.
Please clarify what Trump did or did not do that makes you think he is Putin’s lapdog? This war started due to weakness on the Biden admin not Trump! Where is the UN or NATO or WEP, or pick a letter.
True.
You are completely batshit insane, you know that?
I understand that you support the ideal that all men are cremated equal, but I do not want to glow in the dark.
Well, Matt. How do you see things playing out and what would you do as President? best, Larry
Help me understand why you think Trump is a traitor and Biden isn't. Gas prices? Selling oil to China? Inflation? Taxes? Market value? America first? Trump is a capitalist. Biden is a hapless politician (at best)
January 6th
wake up - january 6th was fake and a preplanned trap by evil people - where was the national guard? - where were the capital police? answer that and you'll have a clue. Until then, stick to economics
Hey Larry, sorry for upsetting your feelings, but facts remain facts, no matter what you or your handlers say in the demo controlled media.
Just sad to see a brilliant economist turned into a puppet for extreme left, and taking my rep,y down.
This is the way commie media operates in your beloved ukraine
I'd stay with the Social Security topic.
Thank you, and hope your goons will not take down this post.
Stick to economics. Ukraine is irrelevant, or rather no more “strategic” than Moldova and Belarus, which we allow Russia to dominate or neuter, despite both bordering NATO, and somehow this isn’t an existential threat.
Sure I would love to see the Ukrainians fight the Russians to a standstill and retake Kherson and that whole bank of the River, but I am not willing to risk my children’s lives to make that happen. If the EU wants to take on Russia, have it.
Here is an alternative history. If the Trump family got rich off Ukraine and Ukraine was participating/cooperating in an impeachment of Joe Biden, would Ukraine be the world’s darling right now?
Larry, as much as I respect your past work in the field of Social Security, you should stick with it.
This articl of yours is a socialists-Democrat propaganda, and garbage based on no factual information why Putin went in. I am not going into it now, but approach it from your ethnic ancestry. You should be ashamed protecting nazi- ukranians. Here is why. (I wrote this article for a Jewish demo publication back in March of this year),
March, 2022
The ukrainians is the only European people who had NEVER admitted, repented or apologized for killing the Jews.
The most vicious guards of Auschwitz were the ukrainians.
They also eagerly rounded up, transported and killed innocents in Babin Yar.
All of these facts are widely documented by the Yad Vashem Holocaust museum, in Nuremberg trials papers, Auschwitz memorial museum, and many other Holocaust museums in the US and Europe.
Given a chance, they would do it today again.
Forget about Israel.
Never in their miserable history they expressed support for tiny Israel.
In all their votes through their voting history at UN did they ever support Israel?
Meanwhile, that clown they call president had guts to blame Israel for not doing much in their support.
Or another fact comes to mind. Remember the gas chambers of the concentration camps the germans used so efficiently. They field-tried them in ukraine first when they used trucks with exhaust pipes rigged inside the box. Guess who herded the poor victims inside, and washed the trucks after for the next load of innocents...
What was the Jewish life worth through all ukranian miserable history?
Are ukranians going to give back our land? our personal belongings? How many of them are living in stolen homes? How many of them having stolen property in their homes? What was a Jewish life worth?
Are they going to pay for that too? Nope? They are not forgiven, at least not by me.
STUDY YOUR HISTORY, PLEASE.
(lower case letters are used intentionally)
Ukrainian accession to NATO as it’s at war while directly threatening the Russian leadership would be extremely dangerously. The Russians could as easily destroy Washington D.C., New York, Kiev, London, and Berlin as the US could vaporize Russian cities, so what’s the point of making belligerent threats? And why would the Russians have the slightest interest in negotiating a “lease” of Crimea after annexing it years ago following broad approval by referenda of the people living there? Short of nuclear war, there is no credible threat the US has to force such negotiations.
The EU has damaged its economies with its own sanctions, NATO has lost credibility, the US has lost its proxy war in Ukraine, and Ukraine has lost the Donbass. That’s reality, and threatening or even using nuclear weapons is not going to improve it.
Letting the Russians turn Ukraine into a wasteland or occupy it is not tolerable to the US now and too dangerous given Trump's support for Putin. The status quo isn't working. If you don't like my proposal, what's yours? bests, Larry
Turning the US proxy war against Russia into a direct nuclear one is considerably less tolerable for all of mankind. The status quo works better for it than inviting Armageddon ever will.
I think a much better alternative is to accept reality - on the heels of Iraq and Afghanistan, the US lost AGAIN - learn the lessons the defeats offer, and sue for peace.
It’s by no means certain that Russia will occupy Ukraine for long or turn it into a wasteland, but if it does, that’s too bad if that’s not tolerable to the US now. In war, the losing side doesn’t get to dictate terms; that’s what losing means.
Accepting and learning from the many American mistakes is still a lot better than vaporizing Eurasia and North America because Trump has a thing for Putin.
What, precisely, are your terms of surrender, and what makes you think Putin will stop there?
Don’t get melodramatic Larry. The US lost to Afghanistan and left humiliated and defeated, but there was no formal surrender. The US lost in Ukraine, but it won’t have to surrender there either; it just has to leave.
And if the US is ever forced to surrender, I won’t be the one dictating terms.
Biden has already lost the mid terms and has nothing to do with Ukraine. It has every thing to do with his lack of economic policies that put the poor and middle class above short term corp profits.
So the urgency in Ukraine should be around preserving NATO, in my view. I am 100% certain the Pentagon has evaluated solutions similar to Prof Kotlikoff's. My guess is that they have rejected it because of how much it increases the chances of a nuclear war..
Putin, does not appear to know 'exactly' what he is doing as he did not anticipate this level of economic sanctions or of resistance from the Ukrainians. That makes him more desperate and less likely to act rationally...
"Tom," 100 percent certain is very certain. I think he needs a way to declare victory and keep what he has. So does Zelensky. This path provides victory for both. best, Larry
PS, Try your own name. Piketty is not your hero, trust me.
Prof Kotlikoff,
You are right 100% is far too certain. I plead guilty of Hyperbole..
Piketty is not my only economics hero.
I am a huge fan of Luigi Zingales and Alan Card. They are on opposite ends of the ideological spectrum but both bring relevant perspectives on economics in terms of Regulatory Capture and other forms of capture and Use of Empirical Evidence over theory when it comes to wages...
But hey, i admit it, I am an amateur in economics. I have an open mind and have no reason to shut it.
I share your wariness and your support for Ukraine, but I think Ukraine as an uninhabitable wasteland might be at best an extreme fallback position for Putin. IMO his No. 1 preference would be for Ukraine as another Belarus -- something he almost had with Yanukovych.
You may be right. But either way, we need to bring Ukraine into NATO immediately and put an end to this before Trump lets him go all the way.
That would be really self destructive to the US and moreover once again break promises by the US to not expand NATO. Ukraine is so corrupt they have no place inside NATO or the EU.
Russia didn’t dare invade Ukraine while Trump was in office and China didn’t dare to invade Taiwan!
You're saying that Trump would have told Russia it would be at war were it to invade Ukraine. That's what I'm proposing Biden announce to Russia if they don't cease fire.
You are agreeing with me.
No. Russia wouldn’t have dared to invade because Trump was unpredictable. Biden is very predictable. He even went on TV to say he wasn’t going to do anything to stop the invasion. Then a ‘we must defend Ukraine’ Astro turf campaign was launched to gun up public support to spend billions on a siphon of corruption - which is Ukraine and endless war.
The Uni-party is all about endless wars and vast corruption. Biden is part of the establishment UNI-party. You can always count on him to spend obscene sums of money and get the US in to endless wars.
At the same time China is once again Russia’s backer and is only too happy to see the West and especially the US harm itself.
Trump didn’t represent a war, Trump represented nuclear annihilation.