This is a column I published yesterday (4-18-22) in the Wall Street Journal. Unfortunately, it’s behind their paywall. I won't be able to post it here for a month given their copyright arrangement. The gist of the article is that, once you adjust for inflation, short-term mortgage rates are essentially zero and could end up negative if inflation doesn’t decline as the bond market predicts. As for projected long-term real mortgage rates, they too are close to rock bottom. Consequently, home purchase remains very inexpensive despite appearances to the contrary based on nominal mortgage rates. If you have access to the Journal, take a read. If not, consider a subscription. Yes, its regular columnists are quite political. But it may have the best news reporting of any U.S. paper.
I'm having a house built. It has taken too long and cost too much. But the location – on water, on stilts and in Florida, is lovely. Larry's column reassures me that I haven't lost my mind.
The WSJ opinion section (last 4 pages of section 1) are Odious. It's not doing journalism that's that great. But there is too much rate fakery going on now. The "Fed Funds Rate" set at __whatever__ doesn't mean anything in a regime of excess liquidity and "ample reserves". Which bank wants to BORROW Fed Funds? All the SIFI have excess reserves. It's all meaningless. All intervened. All fake numbers. Our 10 year is at 2.8% which is equivalent to ~4.5% if you roll off the 2-3 Trillion recently dumped on due to Covid crisis. Finance and Economics have been a fake wonderland for the last decade plus.
I'm having a house built. It has taken too long and cost too much. But the location – on water, on stilts and in Florida, is lovely. Larry's column reassures me that I haven't lost my mind.
Probably your safest move. Enjoy! But keep an eye on the contractors. They can overcharge between bats of your eye! best, Larry
Will you be publishing this full article to Substack soon? I’d love to read it. Thx!
The WSJ opinion section (last 4 pages of section 1) are Odious. It's not doing journalism that's that great. But there is too much rate fakery going on now. The "Fed Funds Rate" set at __whatever__ doesn't mean anything in a regime of excess liquidity and "ample reserves". Which bank wants to BORROW Fed Funds? All the SIFI have excess reserves. It's all meaningless. All intervened. All fake numbers. Our 10 year is at 2.8% which is equivalent to ~4.5% if you roll off the 2-3 Trillion recently dumped on due to Covid crisis. Finance and Economics have been a fake wonderland for the last decade plus.